A new analysis from climate advocacy group Global Witness, published via The Guardian, has laid bare the massive windfall profits flowing to the world’s largest oil and gas companies following the unauthorized U.S. military engagement in Iran initiated by former President Donald Trump. The report, which draws on market data from energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy, calculates that the 100 biggest fossil fuel producers have collectively added an extra $30 million in profits *every single hour* since military operations began in late February – profits that would not exist without the conflict-driven spike in global crude prices.
In the first 30 days of hostilities alone, the global oil industry accumulated $23 billion in excess unearned profits. If oil prices hold steady around the $100 per barrel mark through the end of the year, that total will surge to an unprecedented $257 billion in windfall gains, according to the analysis.
The largest beneficiaries of the market volatility are some of the world’s most valuable energy firms: Saudi Aramco tops the list with a projected $25.5 billion in extra profits by year’s end, followed by Kuwait Petroleum Corp. at $12.1 billion and U.S. energy giant ExxonMobil at $11 billion.
These windfalls are not generated through innovation or increased production, the report emphasizes – they are pulled directly from the pockets of everyday households and small businesses. Consumers around the world are already paying steep premiums at the gas pump and for home energy bills, while businesses across all sectors are grappling with spiking operational costs that are often passed on to customers in the form of higher prices for goods and services.
To soften the blow for their citizens, dozens of governments have been forced to cut fuel taxes, a move that drains public funding earmarked for critical services including healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Nations including Australia, South Africa, Italy, Brazil, and Zambia have all seen public revenue shrink as a result of these emergency tax cuts, the report notes.
Climate and energy advocates warn the outcome of the Iran conflict is a stark warning about the global economy’s continued dependence on fossil fuels. Patrick Galey, head of news investigations at Global Witness, argued that geopolitical crises repeatedly translate to record gains for major oil producers while ordinary communities absorb all the risk and cost. “Until governments kick their fossil fuel addiction, all of our spending power will be held hostage to the whims of strongmen,” Galey said.
For months, climate campaigners have pushed for governments to implement a targeted windfall profits tax on major fossil fuel companies to recoup a portion of these excess gains and deliver relief to struggling consumers. Leading climate action group 350.org recently reiterated this call, arguing that revenue from the tax should be directed toward expanding renewable energy infrastructure to build long-term energy security and lower costs for households.
Beth Walker, an energy policy analyst with climate think tank E3G, echoed this recommendation, noting that taxing excess oil profits offers a pathway to accelerate the global transition away from fossil fuels. “Governments should use taxes on windfall profits to accelerate the transition to green energy, rather than deepen dependence on fossil fuels,” Walker said.