A newly released opinion study has uncovered a major political shift unfolding across the United Kingdom, rooted in widespread voter anger over the conflict in Gaza. The data confirms that more than 50 percent of former Labour Party voters who plan to back another centre or left-wing party in the next national general election point to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as a key factor driving their decision to abandon Keir Starmer’s party.
Commissioned jointly by the Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC) and Friends of the Earth, and carried out by leading UK pollster Opinium, the findings underscore how the Gaza crisis and the UK government’s ongoing alignment with Israel continue to reshape the country’s political landscape, contradicting a common narrative that public outrage over the conflict is limited to a small, sectarian, or Muslim-only base of opposition.
The poll analyzed voting patterns from last month’s UK local elections, tracking how voters who supported Labour in the 2024 general election shifted their support in these local contests. Data shows that 40.7 percent of these defecting voters switched their allegiance to the left-wing Green Party, which saw historic gains across the country in last month’s ballots. Another 29.6 percent moved to the centrist Liberal Democrats, 11.1 percent backed the right-wing Reform UK, and 9.3 percent switched to the governing Conservative Party.
Among all ex-Labour voters who shifted to other centre and left-wing parties, 53 percent confirmed that the current UK Labour government’s support for Israel was an influencing factor in their decision to switch. Broken down, 21 percent said the issue influenced their choice “a great deal,” while an additional 31 percent said it impacted their vote “somewhat.”
The poll also highlighted clear generational divides in voter sentiment over the Gaza conflict. Two-thirds of voters aged 18 to 34 who left Labour cited Gaza as a motivating factor, compared to 54 percent of voters aged 35 to 49, 49 percent of 50 to 64-year-olds, and 43 percent of voters aged 65 and older. The strongest correlation between Gaza discontent and defection, though, was seen among voters who switched to the Green Party: two-thirds of these new Green voters said the Labour Party’s stance on Gaza pushed them to switch their support. For context, just 32 percent of ex-Labour voters who moved to the Liberal Democrats cited Gaza as a factor, compared to 44 percent of those who switched to the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru, or independent centre-left candidates.
Led by Zack Polanski, the Green Party recorded dramatic gains in last month’s local elections, a surge that pollster Sir John Curtice noted came primarily at Labour’s expense. Curtice observed that the Greens inflicted far deeper damage on Labour’s vote share than right-wing challenger Reform UK in these contests.
Further data from the election breakdown shows that candidates who signed PSC’s “Pledge for Palestine” — a commitment to advance Palestinian rights if elected — won 27 percent of the seats they contested, outperforming Labour candidates who won just 22 percent of seats they contested. Reform UK candidates won 30 percent of the seats they contested, while Liberal Democrat candidates took 21 percent, just one point behind Labour.
This reporting comes from Middle East Eye, an outlet that provides independent, in-depth coverage of the Middle East, North Africa, and global affairs connected to the region.