Stephen Miran, recently appointed to the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump, is pushing for more substantial and rapid interest-rate cuts than his colleagues. Miran, who joined the board last month and is currently on leave from his role as chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors, argues that the federal funds rate should be significantly lower than its current range of 4% to 4.25%. While Trump has called for a three-percentage-point reduction, Miran advocates for a mid-2% range, about two points below today’s rate. His stance was evident during the Fed’s recent vote, where he was the sole dissenter against a modest quarter-point cut, instead favoring a half-point reduction. Miran’s projections, as indicated in the Fed’s September ‘dot plot,’ suggest a federal funds rate below 3% by year-end, a stark contrast to the majority forecast of 3.75%. His rationale centers on the ‘neutral rate of interest’ (r-star), which he believes is much lower than his peers estimate, warning that the Fed’s current policy risks exacerbating unemployment. Miran attributes his outlook to Trump’s policies, including tariffs, tax changes, and deregulation, which he claims will alter the supply and demand dynamics of money. However, his arguments face skepticism from economists and bond investors, with many questioning the feasibility of his projections. Despite his outlier position, Miran’s detailed justifications, supported by 28 footnotes, offer a rare depth in policy discourse. Yet, with inflation concerns and a softening job market, the Fed remains cautious, favoring gradual quarter-point cuts over Miran’s aggressive approach.
