United Nations experts have issued a stark warning that the ongoing treason trial of South Sudan’s suspended Vice President Riek Machar is severely undermining the 2018 peace agreement between Machar and President Salva Kiir. The UN panel’s report reveals that military forces from both factions continue to engage in confrontations across the country, creating conditions ripe for renewed major conflict.
The political landscape has dramatically shifted since the signing of the peace accord, with years of neglect fragmenting government and opposition forces into a complex patchwork of uniformed soldiers, defectors, and armed community defense groups. These factions are increasingly preoccupied with local struggles rather than national reconciliation efforts.
UN Peacekeeping Chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix recently informed the Security Council that South Sudan’s crisis is rapidly escalating, describing a visible ‘breaking point’ with time running ‘dangerously short’ to salvage the peace process. The situation marks a troubling development for the oil-rich nation that gained independence from Sudan in 2011 after prolonged conflict, only to descend into civil war in 2013 along ethnic divisions between Kiir’s Dinka supporters and Machar’s Nuer loyalists.
The 2018 agreement that ended the civil war—which claimed over 400,000 lives—established a unity government but has suffered from sluggish implementation. The already delayed presidential election is now scheduled for December 2026.
Tensions dramatically escalated in March when a Nuer militia seized an army garrison, prompting Kiir’s government to charge Machar and seven other opposition figures with treason, murder, terrorism, and other crimes. While Kiir’s administration maintains that peace agreement implementation continues unaffected through an opposition faction led by Stephen Par Kuol, those siding with Machar’s former deputy Natheniel Oyet have been largely removed from positions and forced to flee the country.
The African Union, regional countries, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have unanimously called for Machar’s release and emphasized strong support for the 2018 agreement’s full implementation. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation continues deteriorating, with latest assessments indicating 7.7 million people—57% of the population—facing crisis-level food insecurity and famine conditions in communities most affected by renewed fighting.