The AI job cuts are here – or are they?

The recent wave of corporate layoffs, spearheaded by tech giant Amazon, has reignited concerns about Artificial Intelligence (AI) replacing human jobs. Amazon’s decision to cut approximately 14,000 corporate roles follows similar workforce reductions by companies like Chegg, Salesforce, and UPS, all of which have cited AI as a contributing factor. However, experts caution against attributing these layoffs solely to AI, emphasizing the complexity of corporate dynamics and broader economic trends. Martha Gimbel, executive director of Yale University’s Budget Lab, argues that attributing job losses to AI based on executive statements during layoffs is a flawed approach. She highlights that company-specific factors, such as overhiring during the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, play significant roles. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found a correlation between AI adoption and rising unemployment since 2022, particularly in sectors like office and administrative support. Yet, Morgan Frank, an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh, notes that only certain occupations, such as administrative roles, have been directly impacted by AI advancements like ChatGPT. For tech and math-related jobs, the impact remains negligible. The broader economic context, including the pandemic hiring surge and subsequent corrections, complicates the narrative. Enrico Moretti, an economics professor at UC Berkeley, points out that companies like Amazon, which both produce and consume AI, are uniquely positioned to automate roles quickly. Lawrence Schmidt of MIT Sloan School of Management adds that job reallocation, rather than outright job loss, is a more likely outcome. As the debate continues, distinguishing between cyclical economic patterns and AI-driven disruptions remains a critical challenge for policymakers and businesses alike.