标签： Asia

Amid ongoing protests in Iran, senior Israeli figures have articulated a strategy of covert influence while publicly advocating for regime change. Former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, speaking to Israeli Army Radio, emphasized the need for strategic patience and operating with an “invisible hand” to steer developments. Despite an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against him, Gallant asserted that the Iranian regime “must fall,” but that the primary energy for change should come from the Iranian people themselves, not foreign military strikes.

The Israeli government has maintained relative public silence regarding the protests that began on December 28th, following reported advice from security officials that commentary could cause “great damage.” However, this week witnessed several Israeli politicians breaking this silence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed support for Iranian citizens’ “extraordinary courage” while condemning the “mass slaughter of innocent civilians” – despite facing his own ICC warrant for alleged crimes against humanity.

Reports suggest sophisticated Israeli intelligence operations targeting Iranian society. According to Haaretz journalist Nir Gontarz, Mossad-connected figures are briefing Israeli media personalities on messaging regarding Iran, effectively turning them into instruments of psychological warfare. Gontarz highlighted this as either conscious participation in state apparatus or “extreme professional negligence,” drawing parallels to the recent “Qatargate” misinformation scandal involving Netanyahu’s aides.

The situation is further complicated by diplomatic engagements between Iranian and US officials. Israeli media outlet i24news reported concerns within Netanyahu’s security establishment that talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and White House envoy Steve Witkoff might focus exclusively on nuclear negotiations, potentially allowing the Iranian government to suppress protests.

Iranian officials have accused the US and Israel of fomenting unrest, with Araghchi specifically alleging foreign encouragement of protests to destabilize the Islamic Republic. These allegations are reinforced by statements from figures like former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who openly referenced Mossad operations alongside Iranian protesters. However, Iranian demonstrators have rejected these characterizations, with one protester telling Middle East Eye that they are unfairly labeled as foreign agents whenever they protest economic conditions.

The human cost continues to mount, with an Iranian official telling Reuters that approximately 2,000 people have been killed, blaming “terrorists” for civilian and security personnel deaths.

Social media platforms have emerged as the central battleground for discourse surrounding the escalating protest movement in Iran, revealing a multifaceted conflict that defies simplistic geopolitical narratives. What originated as economic demonstrations by shopkeepers protesting rampant inflation has rapidly evolved into a widespread domestic and international demand for systemic political reform.

The scale of the unrest is significant, with Reuters reporting approximately 2,000 fatalities—including both civilians and security personnel—while the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency documents over 10,700 arrests as the protests enter their third week. These represent the most substantial demonstrations since the 2022 ‘Woman Life Freedom’ movement.

International reactions have further complicated the situation. U.S. President Donald Trump has openly contemplated intervention, stating military officials are ‘looking at some very strong options’ while simultaneously imposing a 25% tariff on nations conducting business with Iran. Israeli officials, including former defense minister Yoav Gallant, have explicitly advocated for regime change, encouraging revolt against Tehran’s leadership.

Amid these developments, social media has become a platform for nuanced analysis. Palestinian-American comedian Sammy Obeid articulated a perspective gaining traction online: ‘A million things can be true at once.’ This sentiment acknowledges simultaneous realities—Iranian government oppression, external exploitation by intelligence agencies, and Western economic sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy while disproportionately affecting the middle class that could drive change.

Iranian-American commentator Ariana Jasmine Afshar echoed this complexity: ‘Iranian people who currently live under an oppressive dictatorship deserve to express themselves without state sanctioned violence AND the US, western forces and Israel have cause irreparable harm to Iranians.’

Regional experts emphasize Iran’s civil society as the potential driver for organic political transformation. Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council for Foreign Relations notes that Western discourse often overlooks that Iranian protesters aren’t necessarily calling for foreign military intervention. Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj magazine, suggests most Iranians would welcome sanctions relief and recognize the Islamic Republic’s impermanence, but prefer change without external imposition.

As Iran’s foreign minister maintains that Tehran remains open to either ‘war or dialogue,’ the digital discourse continues to highlight that supporting Iranian self-determination requires rejecting both domestic oppression and foreign interventionism.

Iran has plunged into a nationwide digital darkness as its government implements a complete internet shutdown in response to unprecedented anti-regime protests that have spread across all 31 provinces. The current wave of demonstrations marks a significant escalation in Iran’s long history of civil unrest, distinguished by its explicit calls for regime change and the emergence of clear leadership from exiled opposition figures.

The catalyst for these events emerged in late December when Tehran’s bazaar merchants initiated protests against the country’s theocratic rulers following the Iranian currency’s sharp collapse. These demonstrations remained limited initially until Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s former shah, issued a public call for nationwide protests last Thursday and Friday. Despite initial dismissal from authorities who questioned Pahlavi’s influence, his Instagram video garnered over 90 million views and nearly 500,000 comments—unprecedented engagement for Persian-language social media content.

This mobilization represents the first time since the 1979 Iranian Revolution that a political figure has successfully issued a protest call explicitly framed around regime change that garnered massive public response. Unlike the leaderless, social media-driven protests of 2017-2018, 2019-2020, and 2022, or the reform-seeking Green Movement of 2009, the current movement combines digital tools with identifiable leadership, significantly enhancing its potential reach and impact.

In response, the regime has deployed its full arsenal of digital authoritarian strategies. On January 8, authorities imposed a complete internet blackout, simultaneously cutting telephone lines and SMS services. This drastic measure has isolated over 85 million Iranians, restricting information flow exclusively to state-run outlets like Tasnim and Fars News, both affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The internet shutdown represents just one component of Iran’s sophisticated digital repression apparatus. The regime has simultaneously activated its extensive network of facial recognition cameras, largely imported from China, to identify and arrest protesters. Additionally, state media has intensified propaganda efforts, constructing narratives that frame protesters as foreign-backed terrorists rather than legitimate dissenters.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has characterized participants as ‘trained terrorists’ brought into the country by enemies, while parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf alleges the nation faces ‘a phase of terrorist warfare.’ These narratives deliberately obscure the protests’ domestic origins and justify violent suppression.

Despite the digital blackout, limited Starlink satellite internet access has allowed a small number of videos to reach the outside world, documenting a brutal crackdown that has reportedly resulted in hundreds—possibly thousands—of fatalities and over 10,000 arrests. In a countermove, protesters have attempted to disable the regime’s ubiquitous surveillance cameras.

The current situation echoes the 2019 protests where approximately 1,500 people were killed under similar digital blackout conditions, though the explicit regime-change demands and leadership structure distinguish the current movement. As authorities work to disrupt remaining Starlink signals, protesters continue risking their lives to make their voices heard beyond Iran’s digital iron curtain.