The escalating Middle East conflict has triggered a severe fertilizer supply crisis that now threatens food security across Asia, as geopolitical tensions disrupting energy markets simultaneously constrict global supplies of essential crop nutrients.
As a critical global fertilizer exporter accounting for approximately 30% of international trade, the Middle East’s production capacity has been severely compromised. The region’s fertilizer manufacturing relies heavily on liquefied natural gas as primary feedstock, creating an inextricable link between energy and agricultural inputs.
The strategic Strait of Hormuz, typically a vital maritime corridor for seaborne fertilizer shipments, remains effectively closed amid ongoing military operations between the United States, Israel, and Iran now entering their fourth week of sustained conflict.
This supply chain disruption has precipitated dramatic price surges in fertilizer markets. Middle East granular urea reached $665 per metric ton recently, representing a nearly 40% increase from the $485 per ton traded just weeks earlier in late February.
Urea’s critical role in rice and wheat cultivation makes these price spikes particularly concerning for Asia-Pacific nations, where both crops constitute dietary staples. Agricultural experts warn that cost-prohibitive fertilizer prices will likely force farmers to reduce application rates, potentially diminishing crop yields and triggering broader food inflation.
Marie Annette Galvez-Dacul, Executive Director of the Center for Food and Agri Business at the University of Asia and the Pacific in Manila, emphasized the cascading effects: “As fertilizer becomes more expensive, farmers may use less of it, which can lower crop yields. This can lead to higher food prices and make food less affordable, even if supply remains physically available.”
While the Philippines—the world’s largest rice importer—has assured citizens of stable rice supplies with approximately 400,000 tons in government warehouses, the situation remains precarious. Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. confirmed sufficient agricultural product supplies for at least 90 days, but longer-term concerns persist.
Research fellow Elyssa Kaur Ludher of Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute highlighted the vulnerability of major rice-exporting nations: “Key rice exporters in India, Vietnam and Thailand are dependent on imported fertilizers from Gulf countries. If rice production in these countries decreases, it will limit the supply of tradable rice.”
The inherent fragility of global rice markets—where only 10% of production enters international trade—makes the situation particularly volatile. Ludher cautioned that “such shortages have triggered food-item export bans in the past,” noting that such measures “destabilize markets and further push up prices,” potentially exacerbating global food insecurity.
Unlike immediate fuel price spikes, fertilizer’s impact on food prices operates with a delayed effect. Experts estimate the price shock will require one to two months to influence planting decisions, with full manifestation in grocery stores taking three to nine months.
The International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines identifies higher fertilizer prices as the “bigger medium-term risk” for global rice trade, noting production cuts at three Indian fertilizer plants due to LNG shortages.
Paul Teng, Senior Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, noted that Southeast Asian farmers had largely secured fertilizers before the conflict erupted for current planting cycles. However, he warned that persistent supply constraints would inevitably affect both rice supply and prices across the region, potentially forcing farmers to reduce fertilizer usage and consequently diminish outputs of rice, vegetables, palm oil, and cacao.
