标签： Asia

A profound internal schism has emerged within Iran regarding renewed diplomatic engagement with the United States, set against a backdrop of severe economic sanctions and recent military tensions in the Gulf. This division marks a significant shift from the pre-war period preceding last year’s 12-day conflict with Israel, when opposition to dialogue was more dominant.

Prominent voices are now advocating for a pragmatic approach to lift crippling international sanctions. Gholamhossein Karbaschi, former Tehran mayor and moderate political figure, issued a direct appeal to President Masoud Pezeshkian, stating the government must prioritize relief for the Iranian people. “The world is cruel. America is a bully, and Europe is even worse,” Karbaschi acknowledged in comments to Etemad Online, while emphasizing the necessity of addressing citizens’ economic and security needs.

International affairs analyst Ali Bigdeli similarly urged officials to conclude current negotiations, criticizing previous strategies as obsolete. “The old strategy no longer works, and the signs of its failure are clear,” Bigdeli stated in Saazan Degi newspaper, advocating for talks grounded in “today’s realities, not yesterday’s illusions.”

The debate unfolds as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who retains ultimate authority over foreign policy decisions, has remained conspicuously silent on the current negotiations—a silence many interpret as tacit approval.

Meanwhile, figures within Iran’s establishment are acknowledging a deepening social crisis following the violent suppression of nationwide protests three weeks prior. Official reports cite 3,117 fatalities, though independent human rights organizations estimate the death toll exceeds 6,000. This violence has created what analysts describe as a state of “collective grief” throughout the nation.

Saeed Khademi, advisor to the national Welfare Organization, warned in Arman Meli newspaper that unrecognized social trauma combined with economic hardship and fears of military conflict could fuel renewed unrest. “If the true grief and pain of the victims and their families is not recognized,” Khademi wrote, “a wounded and irritable mind is formed that can lead to anger and social tension.”

This concern was echoed by Pirouz Hanachi, former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who cautioned in Etemad daily that “ignoring public grief or trying to quickly and carelessly overcome it can lead to the accumulation of resentment” that eventually manifests as “anger and distrust.”

In a concerning development, Iranian authorities have recently expanded their crackdown beyond ordinary citizens to target prominent reformist figures. Recent days have witnessed arrests of several high-profile individuals including Javad Imam, Ghorban Behzadiannejad, Hossein Karroubi, and Ali Shakouri-Rad—a former parliament member and Iran-Iraq War veteran who had recently criticized security forces for allegedly instigating violence during protests.

The scope of these arrests, which now includes senior members of the Reform Front coalition, represents the most significant suppression of dissent since the 2009 Green Movement protests.

Simultaneously, Iranian lawyers are mounting unprecedented challenges against the judicial treatment of detainees. Legal professionals have published open letters protesting what they describe as “extralegal restrictions” on defendants’ rights, including denied access to counsel, abbreviated trials, and coerced confessions broadcast on state media.

Hamidreza Haji Esfandiari, a lawyer writing in Etemad, criticized the systematic violation of constitutional protections, warning that such practices risk “an even greater destruction of the manifestations of the rule of law.”

Iranian state media has terminated a provincial television director following a significant broadcast incident during live coverage of the Islamic Revolution’s 47th anniversary celebrations. The event unfolded Wednesday in Sistan-Baluchistan province during nationwide rallies commemorating the 1979 revolution.

Reporter Musab Rasoulizad, while covering crowd participation at the government-organized event, inadvertently chanted “Marg bar Khamenei” (Death to Khamenei) instead of the customary anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans typically heard at such gatherings. The phrase directly targeted Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s highest political and religious authority.

State television authorities announced immediate disciplinary measures, stating: “The broadcast director of Hamoun provincial TV channel has been dismissed following an error that occurred on the provincial network. The transmission operator and broadcast supervisor were suspended, with other staff involved referred to disciplinary committee.”

The official statement emphasized these actions were necessary to “maintain professional discipline and safeguard the media’s reputation.” Rasoulizad subsequently issued a video apology describing the incident as “a slip of the tongue and a blunder which was broadcast and became a pre-text for anti-revolutionaries.”

This broadcast controversy occurs against a backdrop of recent social unrest in Iran. Mass anti-government protests erupted in late December over economic grievances and living cost increases, peaking last month before subsiding. Iranian authorities acknowledge approximately 3,000 fatalities during the unrest, including security personnel and civilians, attributing violence to “terrorist acts” and foreign-instigated riots.

International monitoring organizations report significantly higher casualty figures. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) documents 7,002 deaths, including 6,506 protesters, during the recent period of civil unrest.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has formally positioned his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, as his political successor according to intelligence assessments from Seoul. This significant development emerges just weeks before Pyongyang’s landmark party conference, where the reclusive state is expected to outline its strategic direction for the coming years.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) briefed lawmakers that Kim Ju Ae has been explicitly “designated as a successor,” representing the latest step in her gradual emergence as heir apparent. The assessment comes after analyzing her increasingly visible presence at official state functions and the elevated protocol she has received during recent public appearances.

The teenage successor-in-waiting first appeared publicly in 2022 accompanying her father to an intercontinental ballistic missile launch demonstration. Since then, state media has progressively amplified her profile, referring to her with honorific titles typically reserved for top leadership, including “the beloved child” and “great person of guidance” (hyangdo in Korean).

Recent imagery published by North Korean official channels showed Ju Ae paying respects alongside her father at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, the mausoleum housing the remains of state founder Kim Il Sung and former leader Kim Jong Il. This symbolic gesture reinforced perceptions of her growing political stature.

Analysts suggest she might be appointed to the powerful position of First Secretary of the Central Committee during the upcoming Workers’ Party congress—the second highest office in North Korea’s political hierarchy. The February conference represents Pyongyang’s most significant political gathering, where the regime will likely announce its foreign policy objectives, military strategy, and nuclear development plans for the next five-year period.

South Korean intelligence officials indicate they will closely monitor the level of protocol accorded to Ju Ae during the congress proceedings for further indications of her formalized status within the leadership structure.