标签： Asia

Social media platforms have emerged as the central battleground for discourse surrounding the escalating protest movement in Iran, revealing a multifaceted conflict that defies simplistic geopolitical narratives. What originated as economic demonstrations by shopkeepers protesting rampant inflation has rapidly evolved into a widespread domestic and international demand for systemic political reform.

The scale of the unrest is significant, with Reuters reporting approximately 2,000 fatalities—including both civilians and security personnel—while the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency documents over 10,700 arrests as the protests enter their third week. These represent the most substantial demonstrations since the 2022 ‘Woman Life Freedom’ movement.

International reactions have further complicated the situation. U.S. President Donald Trump has openly contemplated intervention, stating military officials are ‘looking at some very strong options’ while simultaneously imposing a 25% tariff on nations conducting business with Iran. Israeli officials, including former defense minister Yoav Gallant, have explicitly advocated for regime change, encouraging revolt against Tehran’s leadership.

Amid these developments, social media has become a platform for nuanced analysis. Palestinian-American comedian Sammy Obeid articulated a perspective gaining traction online: ‘A million things can be true at once.’ This sentiment acknowledges simultaneous realities—Iranian government oppression, external exploitation by intelligence agencies, and Western economic sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy while disproportionately affecting the middle class that could drive change.

Iranian-American commentator Ariana Jasmine Afshar echoed this complexity: ‘Iranian people who currently live under an oppressive dictatorship deserve to express themselves without state sanctioned violence AND the US, western forces and Israel have cause irreparable harm to Iranians.’

Regional experts emphasize Iran’s civil society as the potential driver for organic political transformation. Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council for Foreign Relations notes that Western discourse often overlooks that Iranian protesters aren’t necessarily calling for foreign military intervention. Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj magazine, suggests most Iranians would welcome sanctions relief and recognize the Islamic Republic’s impermanence, but prefer change without external imposition.

As Iran’s foreign minister maintains that Tehran remains open to either ‘war or dialogue,’ the digital discourse continues to highlight that supporting Iranian self-determination requires rejecting both domestic oppression and foreign interventionism.

Iran has plunged into a nationwide digital darkness as its government implements a complete internet shutdown in response to unprecedented anti-regime protests that have spread across all 31 provinces. The current wave of demonstrations marks a significant escalation in Iran’s long history of civil unrest, distinguished by its explicit calls for regime change and the emergence of clear leadership from exiled opposition figures.

The catalyst for these events emerged in late December when Tehran’s bazaar merchants initiated protests against the country’s theocratic rulers following the Iranian currency’s sharp collapse. These demonstrations remained limited initially until Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s former shah, issued a public call for nationwide protests last Thursday and Friday. Despite initial dismissal from authorities who questioned Pahlavi’s influence, his Instagram video garnered over 90 million views and nearly 500,000 comments—unprecedented engagement for Persian-language social media content.

This mobilization represents the first time since the 1979 Iranian Revolution that a political figure has successfully issued a protest call explicitly framed around regime change that garnered massive public response. Unlike the leaderless, social media-driven protests of 2017-2018, 2019-2020, and 2022, or the reform-seeking Green Movement of 2009, the current movement combines digital tools with identifiable leadership, significantly enhancing its potential reach and impact.

In response, the regime has deployed its full arsenal of digital authoritarian strategies. On January 8, authorities imposed a complete internet blackout, simultaneously cutting telephone lines and SMS services. This drastic measure has isolated over 85 million Iranians, restricting information flow exclusively to state-run outlets like Tasnim and Fars News, both affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The internet shutdown represents just one component of Iran’s sophisticated digital repression apparatus. The regime has simultaneously activated its extensive network of facial recognition cameras, largely imported from China, to identify and arrest protesters. Additionally, state media has intensified propaganda efforts, constructing narratives that frame protesters as foreign-backed terrorists rather than legitimate dissenters.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has characterized participants as ‘trained terrorists’ brought into the country by enemies, while parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf alleges the nation faces ‘a phase of terrorist warfare.’ These narratives deliberately obscure the protests’ domestic origins and justify violent suppression.

Despite the digital blackout, limited Starlink satellite internet access has allowed a small number of videos to reach the outside world, documenting a brutal crackdown that has reportedly resulted in hundreds—possibly thousands—of fatalities and over 10,000 arrests. In a countermove, protesters have attempted to disable the regime’s ubiquitous surveillance cameras.

The current situation echoes the 2019 protests where approximately 1,500 people were killed under similar digital blackout conditions, though the explicit regime-change demands and leadership structure distinguish the current movement. As authorities work to disrupt remaining Starlink signals, protesters continue risking their lives to make their voices heard beyond Iran’s digital iron curtain.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s New Year greeting to Iranian protesters has ignited controversy and intensified speculation about foreign involvement in Iran’s ongoing civil unrest. Pompeo’s message, which specifically addressed “every Mossad agent walking beside” demonstrators, has been interpreted by many as validating the Islamic Republic’s claims that Israeli operatives have infiltrated the protest movement.

The demonstrations, which began on December 28th and have spread across all 31 Iranian provinces, were initially triggered by spiraling living costs and state repression. However, the situation has been compounded by regional tensions following Israel’s June 2025 airstrikes that killed approximately 1,000 people and the recent U.S. kidnapping of Iran ally Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela.

According to Iran Human Rights (IHR), at least 648 protesters have been killed and approximately 10,000 arrested, though an Iranian security official suggested the death toll might be as high as 2,000, including security personnel.

The international response has been markedly different from previous protest cycles. U.S. President Donald Trump has openly encouraged protesters, promising that “help is on the way,” while former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated that “the regime in Iran must fall” and advocated steering events with “an invisible hand.”

Within Iran, opinions are divided regarding foreign intervention. Some protesters, like 17-year-old Artin from Karaj, welcome potential U.S. and Israeli involvement, viewing these countries as “friends of the Iranian people.” Others express deep skepticism about foreign motives. Sara, a 39-year-old demonstrator from Tehran, questioned whether Israel genuinely seeks democracy in Iran, noting that “Israel wants a weak Iran.”

Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s former ruler, has positioned himself as a potential alternative leader, having cultivated relationships with American and Israeli officials. His mother, Farah Pahlavi, has publicly supported the protesters and called for security forces to join them.

The European Commission has promised new sanctions against Tehran in response to the “horrifying” death toll, while the U.S. has warned its citizens to leave Iran and imposed tariffs on Iran’s trading partners as the situation continues to deteriorate.

Reza Pahlavi, the former crown prince of Iran who has lived in exile for nearly five decades, has unexpectedly become a central figure in the anti-government protests shaking the Islamic Republic. The 65-year-old US-based royal has leveraged social media to encourage nightly demonstrations, with his name becoming a rallying cry for many protesters despite his long absence from Iranian soil.

Pahlavi’s sudden prominence comes as surprise to many observers. According to Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran, the exiled prince has demonstrated a remarkable “ability to turn out Iranians in the streets,” with distinct pro-Pahlavi chants emerging during demonstrations. Brodsky notes this reflects “a nostalgia for the Pahlavi era that has been building for some time,” though not necessarily indicating universal support for monarchical restoration.

The son of the last Shah left Iran in 1978 at age 17 for military pilot training in the United States, narrowly missing the 1979 Islamic Revolution that overthrew his father and ended millennia of Persian monarchy. This timing, according to analyst Clement Therme, has spared him association with the excesses of imperial rule, allowing him to emerge as the “main popular opposition figure” both within and outside Iran.

Pahlavi maintains he seeks not restoration of the throne but leadership of a transition to democracy, telling AFP during a Paris visit: “I don’t believe I need a title to play that role. The important thing is to be someone who can galvanize a nation.” He has called for a secular Iran with greater social freedoms, particularly for women, while allowing space for supporters of the current regime.

Yet significant challenges remain. Pahlavi remains a polarizing figure even within Iran’s fractured opposition. His 2023 visit to Israel without coordinating with allied groups created immediate tensions, while pro-monarchy social media accounts frequently attack other opposition figures, including imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi.

International recognition has also proven elusive. When asked about meeting Pahlavi, former US President Donald Trump responded: “I’ve watched him, and he seems like a nice person, but I’m not sure it would be appropriate at this point to do that as president.”

The royal has endured profound personal tragedies during his exile, including the drug-related death of his sister Leila in 2001 and the suicide of his brother Ali Reza in 2011, which the family attributed to his sorrow over “the loss of his homeland, father and sister.”

Despite these obstacles, academic Arash Azizi of Yale University notes Pahlavi’s support has grown as he’s perceived as “the only nationally known opposition leader with something of a plan to confront the regime.” However, Azizi cautions that his supporters “are still a minority in a highly divided country,” with his camp often alienating potential allies rather than unifying opposition forces.