标签： Africa

In a bold move signaling confidence in Ghana’s economic recovery, the Bank of Ghana announced a record-breaking interest rate cut of 350 basis points on Wednesday, reducing its main rate to 21.5%. This decision marks the second consecutive aggressive rate reduction, following a 300 basis point cut in July, bringing the cumulative reduction to 650 basis points over two meetings. The central bank’s decision reflects a sustained decline in inflation and an improving macroeconomic outlook in the West African nation, renowned for its gold and cocoa production. Economists had anticipated a more modest cut of 200 basis points, but the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted for a more substantial reduction, citing favorable economic conditions. Leslie Dwight Mensah, an economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, praised the move, stating, ‘The MPC has been emboldened by the expectation that inflation will soon reach the target range of 8-10%. This is a positive development for the economy, particularly the real economy sector.’ Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiama highlighted the nation’s robust economic growth, with GDP expanding by 6.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, up from a revised 5.7% in the same period last year. The services sector showed particularly strong improvement. Inflation has also been on a steady decline, dropping for the eighth consecutive month to 11.5% in August, the lowest since October 2021. Asiama expressed optimism that inflation would continue to ease, projecting it to fall within the bank’s target range of 8% (±2%) by the end of the fourth quarter. This rate cut is expected to stimulate economic activity, particularly in sectors sensitive to borrowing costs, further solidifying Ghana’s recovery trajectory.

KIGALI, Sept 17 (Reuters) – Rwanda’s economic expansion decelerated in the second quarter of 2024, primarily due to subdued performances in the industrial and services sectors, according to the national statistics office. The economy grew by 7.8% year-on-year during this period, a notable decline from the 10.2% growth recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. The statistics office highlighted that industrial output increased by 7%, a significant drop from the 13% growth seen in the second quarter of 2023. Similarly, the services sector expanded by 9%, down from 12% in the same period last year. In contrast, the agricultural sector showed resilience, growing by 8% compared to 4% in the previous year. Rwanda’s economy, heavily reliant on agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing, faces challenges as global economic uncertainties and domestic factors weigh on key sectors. Analysts suggest that targeted policy interventions may be necessary to sustain growth momentum in the coming quarters.

African manufacturers are intensifying efforts to secure a temporary extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a pivotal trade initiative set to expire at the end of September. Pankaj Bedi, chairman of United Aryan, a Kenyan apparel company supplying major U.S. retailers like Target and Walmart, revealed that delegations from Kenya and four other AGOA beneficiary nations recently visited Washington to lobby for a one- to two-year extension. The program, established in 2000 under President Bill Clinton, grants duty-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of African products, fostering economic development and job creation across sectors such as textiles, automotive, and mining. However, the aggressive tariff policies of former President Donald Trump have cast uncertainty over its renewal. Despite bipartisan support, last year’s attempt to extend AGOA for 16 years failed to reach a Congressional vote. Bedi emphasized that without an extension, manufacturers face steep tariff hikes, potentially leading to mass layoffs and a shift in U.S. reliance back to Asian manufacturers, particularly China. The White House has yet to publicly endorse an extension, leaving the future of AGOA in limbo.

Uganda has unveiled plans to reduce its overall spending by 4.1% in the 2026/27 financial year, according to a Ministry of Finance document released on Wednesday. The East African nation projects its public expenditure for the 12 months starting July 2026 at 69.4 trillion Ugandan shillings ($19.9 billion), a decrease from 72.4 trillion shillings in the previous fiscal year. The government also aims to cut domestic debt issuance by 21.1%, lowering it to 9 trillion shillings, to manage interest payments and maintain sustainable debt levels. Key priorities for the upcoming fiscal year include completing the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) to initiate crude oil production, advancing mineral quantification for iron ore, gold, and copper deposits, and continuing the development of a refinery and the standard gauge railway project. These measures reflect Uganda’s strategic focus on infrastructure development while ensuring fiscal discipline.

In a surprising turn of events, South Africa’s inflation rate for August 2024 fell to 3.3%, undershooting the 3.6% forecast by economists. This decline, attributed to softer fuel and food prices, has sparked speculation that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) might implement another interest rate cut during its upcoming policy meeting on Thursday. The SARB has already reduced rates three times this year, with the latest cut in July, when it set a new inflation target of 3%. Prior to the release of the inflation data, the consensus was that the central bank would maintain the repo rate at 7%. However, the unexpected drop in inflation, coupled with falling bond yields and a stronger rand, has led some analysts to predict a 25 basis point cut. Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered, described the inflation release as a ‘game changer,’ suggesting that the September meeting could be pivotal. While some analysts remain cautious, citing potential price shocks from recent tariffs imposed by the U.S. on South African exports, others argue that a flagging economy provides additional justification for easing monetary policy. The SARB has acknowledged that the impact of these tariffs on growth and inflation could be modest, but this has yet to be reflected in official data. The central bank’s decision will be closely watched as it seeks to balance inflation control with economic stimulation.