标签： Africa

DAKAR, Senegal — Guinea prepares for a watershed moment in its political history as citizens head to the polls Sunday for the nation’s first presidential election since the 2021 military coup. Junta leader General Mamadi Doumbouya emerges as the overwhelming favorite in an electoral process critics describe as fundamentally compromised.

The West African nation joins a troubling regional pattern where military leaders have seized power across ten African countries since 2020, often subsequently legitimizing their rule through elections. Since overthrowing President Alpha Condé four years ago, General Doumbouya has systematically suppressed major opposition voices and dissent, creating a political landscape with no formidable challengers to his seven-year term aspirations.

Despite Guinea’s status as the world’s leading exporter of bauxite—a crucial mineral for aluminum production—the country faces severe socioeconomic challenges. The World Food Program reports over half of Guinea’s 15 million population experiences unprecedented poverty and food insecurity levels.

Approximately 6.7 million registered voters will cast ballots across 24,000 polling stations nationwide, with preliminary results anticipated within 48 hours. The West African regional bloc ECOWAS has deployed election observers to monitor the process.

A significantly weakened opposition field features nine candidates, with Doumbouya’s most prominent challenger being relatively unknown figure Yero Baldé from the Democratic Front of Guinea party. Notable exclusions on technical grounds include former prime minister Lansana Kouyaté and former minister Ousmane Kaba, while established opposition leaders Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Toure remain in exile.

The election occurs under a new constitutional framework approved in a September referendum that opposition parties urged voters to boycott. This revised constitution notably eliminated the prohibition on military leaders seeking office and extended presidential mandates from five to seven years.

Alioune Tine, founder of West African political think tank Afrikajom Center, expressed skepticism: “This is an election excluding principal opposition leaders occurring within a heavily restricted civic space. The vote primarily serves to legitimize Doumbouya’s consolidation of power.”

This sentiment resonates with citizens like Conakry restaurant owner Mamadou Bhoye Diallo, who dismissed the election as a “farce” and questioned the integrity of a process where “a candidate simultaneously serves as referee.”

Human rights organizations document concerning patterns since the coup, including silenced civil society leaders, abducted critics, and press censorship. Authorities previously dissolved over 50 political parties in what they described as “cleaning up the political chessboard” despite widespread condemnation.

Nevertheless, Doumbouya maintains substantial popular support, particularly among citizens who endorse his vision for national prosperity. His campaign emphasizes infrastructure developments and reforms implemented during his four-year tenure, including digital skills training programs that have resonated with younger voters.

The junta’s showcase project is the Simandou mining operation—the world’s largest iron ore deposit, 75% Chinese-owned—which commenced production last month after decades of delays. Authorities position this mega-project as an economic transformation cornerstone, with an associated national development plan promising tens of thousands of jobs across agriculture, education, transport, technology, and healthcare sectors.

Doumbouya’s campaign has dominated Guinea’s political landscape through massive rallies and extensive media coverage, with state media and administrative resources providing him decisive advantages over underfunded rivals.

The Central African Republic prepares for critical presidential and legislative elections on December 28th, unfolding against a complex backdrop of security realignments and political controversies. President Faustin Archange Touadéra, who has held power since 2016, stands as the probable victor following a constitutional referendum that eliminated presidential term limits in 2023.

The electoral process occurs amid escalating tensions between CAR and its primary security partner, Russia. Moscow has pressured Bangui to replace the Wagner Group mercenary force with its newly established Africa Corps military unit. This demand has created diplomatic friction, as CAR officials reportedly prefer Wagner’s effectiveness and their mineral-based payment arrangement over cash transactions preferred by the Russian government.

Security conditions show paradoxical improvements despite persistent challenges. Human Rights Watch acknowledges that recent peace agreements with armed groups have created unprecedented stability, bolstered by UN peacekeeping forces (MINUSCA), Rwandan special forces, and Russian security contractors. The 17,000-strong MINUSCA contingent will provide election security despite planned reductions due to budget constraints.

Electoral integrity faces serious questions as the main opposition coalition announces a boycott, citing an uneven political landscape. Administrative obstacles previously barred prominent candidates Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra until their late November reinstatement by the Constitutional Council. Human Rights Watch has documented incomplete voter registries and insufficiently trained polling staff, particularly in rural areas.

Regional dynamics further complicate the political landscape. Rwanda maintains significant military influence through both UN participation and bilateral agreements that grant Kigali access to CAR’s agricultural and mineral resources in exchange for security support. This arrangement reflects Rwanda’s strategy of securing alternative mineral sources amid tensions with the Democratic Republic of Congo over alleged support for M23 rebels.

Analysts predict the opposition boycott and limited campaign period will likely ensure Touadéra’s victory and continued dominance by his ruling party, raising questions about the election’s democratic legitimacy amid CAR’s delicate security balance.

South Africa faces a profound institutional crisis as parallel investigations reveal alarming evidence of criminal cartels infiltrating the highest levels of law enforcement and government. The suspension of Police Minister Senzo Mchunu—a senior African National Congress (ANC) figure and presidential ally—marks a critical juncture in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s response to systemic corruption allegations within the police force.

The crisis emerged dramatically in July when KwaZulu-Natal police chief Lt-Gen Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi publicly alleged that organized crime groups had penetrated government structures. His testimony directly implicated Minister Mchunu, claiming he maintained ties to crime kingpins and had deliberately dismantled an elite unit investigating political murders. These assertions triggered two separate inquiries: the Madlanga Commission, headed by retired Constitutional Court judge Mbuyiseli Madlanga, and a parliamentary investigation in Cape Town.

Testimony before these commissions has unveiled a sophisticated criminal network dubbed ‘the Big Five,’ allegedly operating a multinational narcotics empire while engaging in contract killings, cross-border hijackings, and kidnappings. Police crime intelligence commander Lt-Gen Dumisani Khumalo testified that this cartel had ‘penetrated the political sphere’ and could manipulate investigations, suppress evidence, and obstruct legal proceedings through connections within the criminal justice system.

Central to the allegations is controversial businessman Vusimusi ‘Cat’ Matlala, currently facing 25 criminal charges including attempted murder. Witnesses allege Matlala provided financial support for Mchunu’s political ambitions, though both men deny any wrongdoing. Matlala’s testimony before parliament revealed astonishing details about relationships with current and former ministers, including claims that ex-Police Minister Bheki Cele demanded a 1 million rand ‘facilitation fee’ to prevent police harassment—allegations Cele denies while admitting to accepting ‘freebie’ stays at Matlala’s penthouse.

The investigations turned deadly in early December when Marius van der Merwe, a witness who had implicated police officials in torture and extrajudicial killings, was murdered in full view of his family weeks after testifying. His killing highlights the extreme dangers facing whistleblowers in South Africa, where Human Rights Watch documents frequent retaliation against those exposing corruption.

President Ramaphosa now holds an interim report from the Madlanga Commission, though his spokesperson Vincent Magwenya states it won’t be made public until finalized next year. The commission operates in three phases: allegation presentation, response from implicated officials, and witness recall for clarification. With both inquiries continuing into 2026, South Africans await answers about whether their government can effectively address what Gen Mkhwanazi described as ‘terrorism’—criminal elements seeking to control government not through ballots but through illicit means.