As Russia prepares to mark its most consequential secular national holiday on Saturday, simmering security risks from the ongoing war in Ukraine and growing undercurrents of domestic discontent have cast a long shadow over the traditional commemorations held in Moscow’s iconic Red Square. This year’s Victory Day, which honors the Soviet Union’s 1945 defeat of Nazi Germany, has been fundamentally reshaped by the unresolved conflict that has stretched more than four years beyond Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The day, once a showcase of national pride and military grandeur, is unfolding against a backdrop of failed ceasefire efforts, escalating cross-border attacks, and unprecedented cutbacks to the iconic military parade.
The unilateral 48-hour ceasefire that Russia declared for Friday and Saturday fell apart within hours of taking effect, mirroring the rapid collapse of a separate unilateral ceasefire announced by Ukraine just days earlier. Almost immediately after the ceasefire went into effect at midnight Friday, both Moscow and Kyiv traded blame for continued hostilities, a public exchange that lays bare the profound, years-long lack of trust between the two warring parties that has derailed all U.S.-led diplomatic initiatives aimed at reaching a lasting peace settlement.
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed its forces strictly adhered to the ceasefire, holding their positions and halting all offensive operations, but accused Ukraine of launching sustained strikes on Russian military positions and civilian infrastructure across the border regions of Belgorod and Kursk. The ministry added that Russian air defense systems had intercepted and downed 390 Ukrainian drones and six Neptune long-range guided missiles launched at Russian territory since midnight. A separate statement from Russia’s Transport Ministry confirmed that a Ukrainian drone strike targeted the administrative headquarters of the Southern Russia Air Navigation branch in Rostov-on-Don, forcing a temporary suspension of operations at 13 airports across southern Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered a sharply conflicting account of the ceasefire’s first day. Zelenskyy said Russian forces continued offensive attacks along the entire front line overnight, while Ukrainian air defenses intercepted and destroyed 56 Russian drones launched at Ukrainian targets. “All this clearly shows that there was not even a pretense of a ceasefire attempt from the Russian side,” Zelenskyy told reporters Friday. He also confirmed that Ukrainian forces carried out another long-range strike on a Russian oil facility in the Yaroslavl region, located more than 700 kilometers (400 miles) from the Ukrainian border, though he did not provide a specific timeline for the attack. In recent months, Ukraine’s advancements in drone and missile technology have allowed it to carry out increasingly frequent and accurate strikes deep inside Russian territory, with key energy infrastructure, particularly major oil production facilities, emerging as a primary target.
Russian officials have issued stark warnings of severe retaliation – including the possibility of a large-scale missile strike on Kyiv – if any Ukrainian attack disrupts Saturday’s official Victory Day events. “We have strengthened our focus on the possibility of retaliatory measures,” presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters Thursday. Russia’s Foreign Ministry has urged foreign embassies and international organizations based in Kyiv to evacuate their offices ahead of any potential strike, and the Defense Ministry has called on Ukrainian civilians to leave targeted areas.
The guest list for this year’s commemorations has also drawn international attention, with Zelenskyy expressing surprise that several foreign leaders have traveled to Moscow for the events. Attendees include Malaysia’s King Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar, Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith, and Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Notably, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico – the leader of an EU member state – is scheduled to hold a meeting with Putin and lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier outside the Kremlin walls, but will not attend the Red Square parade.
For decades, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has held power for more than 25 years, has leveraged the symbolic legacy of the World War II victory to rally domestic support for his administration and justify the war in Ukraine, while also projecting Russia’s influence on the global stage. That makes this year’s scaled-back parade all the more notable: for the first time in nearly 20 years, the iconic procession will not feature tanks, missiles, or other heavy military equipment, with only the traditional flyover of military aircraft remaining. Russian officials have only cited the “current operational situation” as justification for the change, offering no further details.
Beyond security threats from Ukraine, the Kremlin also faces growing rumblings of domestic discontent over its wartime policies. Many Russians have expressed frustration over escalating internet censorship and state control of online activity, including recent restrictions on the widely used messaging app Telegram. To bolster security for Saturday’s events, Russia’s Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media has announced sweeping restrictions on mobile internet access and text messaging services across Moscow. Only state-approved websites and services included on the government’s official “white list” will remain accessible to mobile users, though home internet and Wi-Fi connections will not be affected. The restrictions have been framed as a necessary measure to protect public safety, but they underscore the Kremlin’s growing anxiety about potential unrest or security breaches during the national holiday.
The current state of the war has further compounded pressures on the Kremlin. Russia’s far larger and better-equipped military has been locked in a slow, costly grinding campaign in Ukraine, a far cry from the quick victory the Kremlin expected when it launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Ukraine’s steady campaign of long-range strikes deep into Russian territory has shaken the Kremlin, with attacks targeting critical oil infrastructure, military manufacturing plants, and weapons depots, eroding confidence in the government’s ability to secure the country’s rear areas as the war drags on.