博客

YANGON, Myanmar — Myanmar’s military junta concluded its orchestrated three-phase general election on Sunday, finalizing a political process designed to cement the authority of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s regime. The election, conducted over nearly a month, has been universally condemned by international observers and domestic opposition groups as a fraudulent endeavor to legitimize the military’s seizure of power in February 2021.

The electoral framework guaranteed military dominance from the outset. With 25% of parliamentary seats constitutionally reserved for the armed forces, the army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) secured most contested seats during the initial voting phases in December and January. This pre-arranged structure ensures the military and its allies will command the parliamentary majority required to form the next government, with Min Aung Hlaing anticipated to assume the presidency.

Voting occurred under severe restrictions that criminalized public criticism through a new Election Protection Law, which has already resulted in over 400 individuals facing charges for activities such as distributing leaflets or online commentary. The absence of voting in more than one-fifth of Myanmar’s 330 townships—due to both security concerns and active armed conflict—further undermined the process’s legitimacy.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) explicitly declined to send observers or recognize the election results, with Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan citing concerns over the lack of inclusive participation. Only nations including Russia, China, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Nicaragua, Vietnam, Cambodia, India, and Japan dispatched observers.

Notably absent from the polls was Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which was forcibly dissolved in 2023 after refusing to register under new military regulations. Suu Kyi remains imprisoned on politically motivated charges totaling 27 years. Other opposition parties either boycotted the election or faced severe restrictions, while armed resistance groups disrupted previous voting rounds with attacks on polling stations that resulted in several casualties.

The final phase of voting commenced at 6 a.m. Sunday across 61 townships in six regions and three states, many of which have experienced recent clashes between military forces and opposition groups. The election commission reported turnout between 50-60% in earlier phases, with approximately 35% fewer eligible voters compared to the 2020 election.

A complex geopolitical standoff is unfolding across North Africa as weapons shipments persistently transit from Libya to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), despite concerted pressure from Saudi Arabia and Egypt on Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar to terminate Emirati military support. Middle East Eye reveals that this ongoing arms transfer occurs amid escalating tensions between regional powers.

Eastern Libya commander Khalifa Haftar faces mounting pressure from Cairo and Riyadh, with both nations warning that continued assistance to RSF could fundamentally reshape Egypt’s relationship with his administration. Earlier this month, Saddam Haftar, Khalifa’s son and deputy commander of the Libyan Arab Armed Forces, was unexpectedly summoned to Cairo where Egyptian officials delivered a stern warning demanding immediate cessation of support to RSF.

Paradoxically, Libyan sources with direct knowledge confirm that Saddam Haftar simultaneously faces counter-pressure from the United Arab Emirates to maintain the weapon facilitation pipeline through eastern Libya. This places the younger Haftar in a precarious position, caught between regional heavyweights, even as arms continue flowing toward the Sudanese conflict zone.

The pressure campaign constitutes part of a broader Egyptian-Saudi initiative to block transfers of arms, fuel, and fighters to RSF, curtail Emirati influence, and prevent further destabilization along the critical Egypt-Libya-Sudan border triangle. During Saddam Haftar’s Cairo visit, Egyptian intelligence officials presented compelling evidence of Emirati weapons shipments, drones, air defense systems, and fuel deliveries from Libya’s Sarir refinery reaching RSF leadership.

Since the Sudanese conflict erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and RSF, Egypt has watched apprehensively as its southern neighbor descends into chaos. Cairo backs the Sudanese government and military, which have recently lost strategic territories including Darfur’s el-Fasher, where paramilitaries allegedly committed mass atrocities.

The situation reveals strange bedfellows: while Haftar’s eastern Libyan administration receives longstanding Egyptian support, it simultaneously benefits from UAE backing. The Emirates serves as RSF’s primary patron, funneling weapons, mercenaries, and funds through Libya, Chad, and Ethiopia. Recent intelligence indicates these supply lines directly enabled RSF’s capture of el-Fasher following a 550-day siege.

Egyptian surveillance has captured aerial imagery documenting weapons moving from Abu Dhabi to Haftar-controlled areas before reaching RSF, plus Libyan fuel tankers supplying paramilitaries in Darfur. Security agencies have also monitored mercenaries from Colombia and Venezuela transiting through Libya en route to join RSF ranks in Sudan.

In response, Cairo and Riyadh offered Saddam Haftar cooperation alternatives including financial and military support to replace Emirati backing. This diplomatic maneuvering coincided with a substantial $4 billion Saudi arms deal with Pakistan, with weapons potentially allocated to both Haftar’s forces and Sudanese army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

Adding complexity, Egyptian officials shared intelligence with Saddam Haftar outlining alleged Emirati plans to fragment Haftar’s territory once RSF secured control over Darfur and Kordofan. The purported strategy involved dividing Libya into multiple zones, potentially undermining Haftar’s authority in eastern and southern regions.

The situation reflects broader regional realignments, with a public feud emerging between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Emirates faces accusations of sowing discord across the Middle East and Africa by backing insurgencies and separatist groups, including RSF which stands accused of genocide and war crimes.

Recent developments in Yemen saw UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council separatists routed by pro-government fighters supported by Saudi air strikes, accompanied by rare public condemnations between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Egypt has joined Saudi Arabia in pushing back against Emirati regional policies, sharing intelligence on UAE activities in Yemen.

Geopolitical analysts suggest UAE’s RSF backing forms part of a broader strategy to shape Sudan and Libya’s future while strengthening its foothold in the Horn of Africa and Sahel. These ambitions increasingly clash with Saudi interests, particularly as Riyadh perceives RSF’s rise as threatening regional stability and challenging Saudi-backed forces in Yemen.