博客

The United States’ aggressive tariff policies and a foreign aid strategy rooted in a ‘grievance narrative’ are fundamentally altering the global economic landscape, with profound implications for both the US and the international community. This was the consensus among experts at recent events hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. They emphasized the urgent need for multilateral cooperation to counteract the rising tide of isolationism and the disruptions caused by tariffs. Hector Torres, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and former International Monetary Fund executive director, described the shift as a ‘seismic disruption’ in global trade. He highlighted the transition from a rules-based to a deals-based trading system, driven more by geopolitical motives than economic rationale. The fragility of global trade was a recurring theme during the discussions on October 14 and 15. Experts warned of the risks posed by US isolationism and stressed the importance of preserving a rules-based system. The latest IMF World Economic Outlook, released on October 14, projected subdued global growth for this year and next, with renewed trade disputes posing significant risks. Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute and former IMF chief economist, criticized the US reliance on tariffs, calling them inefficient and regressive. He noted that the tariffs, estimated to generate about $200 billion annually, disproportionately affect low-income individuals and distort production and consumption in the US. Obstfeld also challenged the US administration’s ‘grievance narrative,’ which portrays other nations as exploiting the US through trade deficits, financial inflows, or security ‘freeloading.’ He argued that this mindset is driving isolationist policies that harm both the US and global economies. Mari Elka Pangestu, vice-chairwoman of Indonesia’s National Economic Council and former World Bank managing director, described the current era as a ‘watershed moment’ for global trade. She emphasized the importance of diversifying trade partnerships, pointing to Indonesia’s newly concluded trade agreement with the European Union as a counterbalance to US tariffs. Torres also highlighted China’s historic role in global trade and the critical role of the WTO, despite its challenges. He called for reforms to address the lack of rules in digital trade, warning of the potential for conflicting regulations or ‘digital firewalls’ in every country. Looking ahead, geopolitical developments are expected to shape the future of trade, with the Middle East and Ukraine identified as critical areas. Obstfeld expressed hope for EU reforms to enhance stability, while Pangestu pointed to the current Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit as an opportunity to reaffirm multilateralism.

Argentina is strategically positioning China as the cornerstone of its beef export expansion, driven by evolving Chinese consumption patterns and increasing demand for diverse meat products. According to the Argentine-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, China accounts for 78 to 80 percent of Argentina’s annual beef exports, solidifying its role as the primary market for Argentine meat producers. This trend was highlighted at the recent Expo Ganadera del Centro, a major livestock fair in Buenos Aires, where Alejandra Conconi, the chamber’s executive director, emphasized China’s pivotal role in Argentina’s international meat trade. Trade data from Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries reveals that in 2024, the country exported over 900,000 metric tons of beef, with China purchasing approximately 595,000 tons. Sebastian Schulz, a researcher at the National University of La Plata, attributes this growing demand to China’s socio-economic transformation, including its focus on balanced development and the goal of achieving ‘common prosperity.’ As China’s middle class expands and dietary preferences diversify, Argentine producers are finding new opportunities in previously undervalued products such as cull cows and offal, which now command higher prices in the Chinese market. Additionally, Argentina’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative is fostering deeper agricultural collaboration and technology transfers, which Schulz describes as ‘strategically important’ for balancing trade deficits and promoting mutual benefits. Looking ahead, Argentina is also exploring exports of bovine genetics and embryos, a high-value segment where the country holds global recognition. The diversification of beef, pork, and by-products is seen as crucial for ensuring the long-term sustainability of Argentina’s meat sector. Amadeo Derito, vice-president of the Argentine Angus Association, noted that exports of certified Angus beef to China have continued to grow, with 1,700 tons certified in the first three quarters of 2024, primarily catering to premium markets.