Two major new public opinion polls from the United States and Israel have revealed widespread dissatisfaction with the outcome of the 2025 US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, just months after the signing of a 60-day cessation of hostilities agreement between Washington and Tehran. The findings paint a stark picture of shifting geopolitical attitudes among voters in both countries, underscoring deep divisions along partisan lines in the US and broad consensus against the war in Israel.
The conflict began on February 28, when former US President Donald Trump launched joint military operations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, framed as a mission to eliminate what the leaders called an imminent threat from the Iranian regime. Stated core objectives included the total destruction of Iran’s nuclear program and key military infrastructure, with Trump also positioning the campaign as a path to regime change, telling the Iranian people they would have a generational opportunity to take control of their government. Despite the assassination of long-time Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of other top Iranian officials, the regime change effort collapsed: Khamenei was succeeded by his son Mojtaba, who reportedly survived the strike that killed his father despite severe injury. In the end, the US publicly conceded it had failed to eliminate Iran’s ballistic missile program — another core war aim — and even formally acknowledged Iran’s right to maintain the program.
The resulting Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which paused active hostilities for 60 days to allow negotiations on a permanent end to the war, has triggered a sharp reversal in US public opinion toward the conflict, according to a new national survey from Quinnipiac University. Overall, 60 percent of registered American voters say the US military campaign against Iran was “not worth it”, with dramatic partisan splits shaping the results: 93 percent of Democratic voters and 66 percent of independent voters view the war as unjustified, while 75 percent of Republican voters still say the conflict was worth waging. Scepticism extends to the diplomatic truce itself: 59 percent of all US voters report they are either “not so confident” or “not confident at all” that the MoU will lead to a lasting peaceful resolution. Once again, partisan views diverge sharply, with 76 percent of Republicans saying they hold at least some confidence in the deal’s success.
Across key security outcomes, even partisan gaps shrink: 61 percent of all US voters believe Iran remains likely to develop nuclear weapons, a view held by a majority of voters in both major US political parties. The war has also shifted public views of US global standing, with 45 percent of voters concluding the conflict has left the United States weaker on the world stage.
Public anger has been fueled by tangible economic harm resulting from the war: after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz at the outbreak of hostilities, the three-month campaign cost the US an estimated $60 billion in direct military spending, according to reporting from Middle East Eye, and pushed average US household fuel costs up by more than $447 annually. The poll also captured a steady shift in US public attitudes toward Israel, America’s key partner in the conflict: 48 percent of US voters now say the US is too supportive of Israel, the highest share recorded since Quinnipiac began tracking the question in 2017. That view is held by just 20 percent of Republicans, compared to 66 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of independents.
The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,165 registered US voters between June 18 and 22, carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
In Israel itself, public sentiment toward the war outcome is even more overwhelmingly negative, according to a joint survey conducted by the Agam Institute and Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Fully 92 percent of Israeli respondents believe Iran emerged as the winner of the conflict, and 86 percent hold a negative view of the final truce agreement. Eighty-three percent say the campaign has weakened Israel’s long-term national security, a view echoed by many current and former Israeli political and military leaders who warn the outcome represents a pivotal blow to Israel’s regional influence.
Seventy-two and a half percent of Israelis reject Netanyahu’s public claims that the war delivered significant gains and eliminated an existential threat to the country, a sentiment that has fueled growing uncertainty over the Prime Minister’s political future. Only 12 percent of respondents say Israel achieved all of its stated war objectives: 56 percent rate Netanyahu’s management of the campaign as poor or an outright failure.
Notably, broad discontent with the war outcome has not translated to support for withdrawing Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, a key sticking point in ongoing US-Iran negotiations. Tehran has insisted the ceasefire cannot become permanent until Israel ends airstrikes in Lebanon and withdraws all troops from positions inside southern Lebanese territory, where Israel says its campaign targets Iran-aligned militant group Hezbollah. Even so, 48 percent of Israeli respondents support continuing the military campaign in Lebanon, with most of that group saying they back the operation even if it sparks a confrontation with the Trump White House.
The Israeli poll surveyed 3,644 Israelis aged 17 and older between June 17 and 20, with a weighted sample designed to reflect the full Israeli population and a maximum sampling error of 2.2 percent at a 99 percent confidence level.