Fresh national polling from Australia’s leading independent research firm Roy Morgan has delivered clear evidence that the center-left Albanese Labor government maintains a commanding two-party preferred advantage over the center-right Coalition opposition, with growing momentum among female voters emerging as the key pillar of its lead. Data collected between April 6 and 12, released publicly on Monday, puts Labor at 56% of the two-party preferred vote, a result that would hand the party a comfortable parliamentary majority if a federal election were held today. The entire shift in momentum toward the current government can be traced to rapidly rising support among women voters: a striking 61% of female respondents now back Labor on a two-party preferred basis, a 3.5 percentage point jump from previous polling. By contrast, less than 40% of women surveyed said they would support the Coalition, leaving the opposition trailing badly among this key demographic. The narrative shifts sharply when breaking down results by male voters, however. Among men, Labor’s two-party preferred support fell 4 percentage points to 50%, leaving the two major parties deadlocked in a tie. On the primary vote, Labor’s support among men dipped 1 point, while far-right party One Nation saw a 2.5 percentage point increase in primary support among male respondents. Across all demographic groups, One Nation’s overall primary support rose 3 percentage points to hit 24.5%, marking a notable recent surge for Pauline Hanson’s populist party. Even with this rightward shift among a subset of the electorate, poll analysts confirm that Labor’s lead among women is large enough to offset losses among men, leaving the party on track to retain power with a clear majority if an election were called in the immediate term.
