A new El Niño event, defined by anomalously warm sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, has a high likelihood of developing in the coming months, potentially intensifying to moderate or stronger levels by the end of 2026, according to China’s National Climate Center. This development will amplify the risk of elevated global temperatures and an increase in extreme weather events across the planet.
Recent ongoing monitoring from the center confirms that sea surface temperatures in the key equatorial Pacific region have continued a steady upward trend, a defining early indicator that El Niño is already in the early stages of formation. Projections from the center indicate the Pacific will transition into official El Niño conditions around May 2026, with a moderate or stronger event expected to take shape between summer and autumn, persisting at minimum through the end of the calendar year.
The forecast comes amid widespread viral online speculation claiming the world could face the most intense El Niño event in 140 years, paired with predictions of unprecedented record-breaking global heat this year that has drawn broad public concern. However, Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center, emphasized that it is far too early to confirm that 2026 will see all-time high global temperatures.
“Taking into account the well-documented lagging effect of El Niño, it remains premature to conclude that the planet will hit a new extreme heat record this year. That said, the associated risks are clearly increasing,” Chen explained.
El Niño forms when sea surface temperatures across large swathes of the tropical Pacific rise far above long-term average levels. This ocean warming releases massive quantities of heat stored deep in the ocean into the atmosphere, driving a measurable rise in global average temperatures. When this additional warming overlays the long-term, human-caused trend of global warming, it makes heat waves more frequent, more intense, and longer-lasting, the center noted.
The full warming impact of an El Niño event typically emerges with a delay, with peak influence most often felt in the calendar year following the event’s formation. “For this reason, we cannot yet confirm whether 2026 will see record-breaking heat,” Chen added.
Wang Yaqi, a senior engineer at the National Climate Center, pointed out that stronger El Niño events carry far-reaching negative impacts across global economies, energy infrastructure, and public health, as they are closely linked to more frequent extreme heat, severe droughts, and intense heavy rainfall events. For example, extreme flooding triggered by intense El Niño-driven rainfall can force hydropower facilities to reduce generation or shut down entirely, while prolonged drought conditions can also cut electricity output sharply across multiple generation types.
In the public health sector, shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns tied to El Niño can increase the transmission rate of a range of infectious diseases. Additionally, drought and sustained extreme heat raise the risk of destructive wildfires in vulnerable regions, Wang explained.
Crucially, the risks associated with El Niño do not stem from the climate pattern alone. Instead, harmful impacts typically emerge from the interaction of multiple overlapping climate factors, with El Niño acting as a triggering event within a broader climate system already altered by long-term global warming.
Climate science confirms that for every 1 degree Celsius increase in global average atmospheric temperature, the maximum moisture capacity of the air rises by roughly 7 percent. This basic physical effect means higher temperatures accelerate evaporation, worsening drought conditions in dry regions, while also increasing the probability of extreme rainfall and destructive flooding when precipitation does occur.
Looking ahead, the combination of long-term background global warming and additional warming driven by El Niño will raise the likelihood of compound extreme weather events, including more intense heat waves and abrupt, destructive shifts between prolonged drought and sudden heavy rainfall, Wang concluded.