A new assessment from senior Israeli officials indicates that active hostilities could return to Gaza within the next 60 days, a timeline that would place renewed conflict before Israel’s scheduled October national elections, according to an exclusive report published Saturday by Israel’s prominent broadcaster Channel 12. Citing anonymous official sources, the outlet laid out a clear pathway that could lead Israel back to large-scale military operations in parts of Gaza it does not currently control, centered on the U.S.-led framework known as the Board of Peace.
Under the terms of the existing ceasefire agreement that paused major fighting, the Board of Peace — established in January 2025 on the initiative of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who chairs the body — is tasked with monitoring compliance from all parties. Israeli officials told Channel 12 that the board is on track to rule within two to three months that Hamas has violated the terms of the ceasefire by failing to meet its requirement to disarm. Such a formal finding would create diplomatic cover for Israel to restart military raids across the strip.
Channel 12 also obtained new details from a senior Israeli political source about previous delays to this process. The source confirmed that the board’s director-general, Nikolay Mladenov, was prepared to formally announce that Hamas was in breach of the agreement as early as two months ago, but ultimately held off on the declaration at the request of international mediators working to preserve the fragile ceasefire. The source added that unless a major shift in Hamas’s position occurs in the coming 90 days, Mladenov will move forward with the finding that the group has failed to uphold its end of the deal.
The current ceasefire was first reached the previous October, after two years of sustained Israeli military operations in Gaza that left nearly 72,000 Palestinians dead, reduced much of the densely populated territory to rubble, and created what is widely recognized as one of the world’s most severe ongoing humanitarian catastrophes. While the ceasefire halted large-scale ground operations, the report notes that violations of the truce have been ongoing on the Israeli side: since the ceasefire took effect, more than 1,000 additional Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, the Israeli military has expanded its controversial buffer zone inside Gaza, and the country has maintained harsh restrictions on the entry of life-saving humanitarian aid into the blockaded territory.
For its part, Hamas has repeatedly stated that it will not enter negotiations on disarmament until Israel fully meets all of its own obligations laid out in the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, including easing the aid blockade and withdrawing from occupied areas of the strip.
This reporting comes from Middle East Eye, a media outlet that produces independent, in-depth coverage of political and humanitarian developments across the Middle East, North Africa, and surrounding regions.