Northern Ethiopia faces escalating tensions that threaten to plunge the region back into armed conflict merely three years after the devastating civil war concluded. The fragile Pretoria peace agreement, brokered by the African Union in November 2022, shows alarming signs of disintegration as multiple geopolitical fault lines reactivate.
Current indicators mirror the distressing pre-war period: banking institutions in Mekelle impose strict withdrawal limits of approximately 2,000 birr ($13) daily amid severe cash shortages. Commodity prices surge exponentially as civilians stockpile essentials. A significant exodus is underway, with those possessing means fleeing via air travel while others resort to overcrowded buses toward Addis Ababa.
The core tensions stem from multiple unresolved issues. Eritrea’s absence from the original peace talks continues to destabilize the region, with Ethiopia recently accusing Asmara of supporting Tigrayan hardliners. Simultaneously, the Western Tigray territorial dispute with Amhara forces remains incendiary. The recent electoral board decision to administer disputed territories independently rather than under Tigrayan or Amharic jurisdiction has further inflamed tensions.
Political complications abound: The TPLF’s legal status remains in limbo after its electoral license revocation, preventing participation in June’s elections. Internal fractures have emerged within the party, with splinter groups forming new political entities. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government now confronts hostility from former allies—Eritrea and Amhara militias—while managing a low-level rebellion in Amhara since 2023.
The Red Sea access dispute compounds these tensions, with landlocked Ethiopia increasingly vocal about securing maritime territories. Abiy’s parliamentary statements suggesting potential forceful acquisition of Assab port have intensified regional anxieties.
International observers warn of catastrophic consequences should conflict reignite. The UN describes the situation as ‘highly volatile,’ with drone strikes already reported and flight suspensions implemented. Experts caution that any new conflict would likely merge with Sudan’s existing crisis, potentially destabilizing the entire Horn of Africa region.
Diplomatic intervention remains uncertain, with diminished AU leverage and divided attention among global powers. Gulf state involvement offers limited hope, though their competing allegiances (UAE with Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia with Eritrea) may hinder cohesive peace efforts.