Contrary to widespread expectations of a buyer-friendly market in 2026, Dubai’s real estate landscape continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience with persistent supply constraints and sustained demand. Current delivery data reveals a significant disparity between projected and actual housing completions, fundamentally reshaping market dynamics.
According to comprehensive analysis by Morgan’s International Realty, Dubai is experiencing substantial delivery shortfalls with only 34,740 of the 71,613 forecasted residential units likely to reach completion this year. This pattern continues the trend established in 2025, when merely 62% of anticipated handovers materialized, well below the five-year annual average of approximately 35,500 completed units.
Market experts including Elias Hannoush, CEO of Morgan’s International Realty, and Andrew Cummings of Savills Middle East, emphasize that the current environment doesn’t represent a traditional buyer’s market. Instead, they describe it as a ‘selective market’ where strategic advantages emerge only in specific circumstances and locations.
The analysis identifies temporary negotiation windows primarily in high-density, mid-market areas such as Jumeirah Village Circle (projected 16,852 units for 2025-27), Business Bay (10,127 units), and Azizi Venice (7,860 units). These pockets offer brief periods of buyer leverage when multiple investor-driven projects complete simultaneously, though this advantage typically diminishes quickly as available units are absorbed.
Contrary to assumptions of artificial price inflation, current valuations reflect genuine market fundamentals supported by robust rental demand and sustainable income generation. The experts caution against waiting for 2027 despite projected delivery increases, noting that expanded options don’t automatically guarantee improved affordability without corresponding changes in demand dynamics.
The consensus among industry professionals emphasizes property selection over market timing, advising buyers to focus on developer track records, unit specifications, and location fundamentals rather than attempting to time perfect market entry points. This approach becomes particularly crucial given the market’s maturation beyond previous boom-bust cycles toward more stable, long-term investment patterns.