On Sunday, voters across Saxony-Anhalt, an eastern German state home to 2.1 million people just west of Berlin, headed to the polls for a state legislative election that carries historic ramifications for modern German politics. This vote stands as the most promising opportunity to date for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the nation’s far-right, anti-immigration opposition party, to claim its first state governorship — a milestone that would mark the first far-right regional government in Germany since the end of World War II.
The election comes amid a period of deep public dissatisfaction with Germany’s unpopular national ruling coalition, which has failed to convince voters it can reverse the country’s ongoing sluggish economic growth. A win for the AfD here would deliver more than just a historic first for the 13-year-old party: it would also be a symbolic body blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has held control of Saxony-Anhalt for the past 24 years.
As the largest opposition party in Germany’s federal parliament, the AfD has built its strongest base of support in the formerly communist, economically disadvantaged eastern states, where Saxony-Anhalt is located. The party’s gubernatorial candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has openly declared that “we will write history here” as the AfD pushes to win an absolute majority in the state legislature.
An absolute majority would allow the AfD to bypass the long-standing “firewall” policy among Germany’s mainstream political parties, which have uniformly refused to enter any governing coalition or power-sharing agreement with the AfD. Notably, the Saxony-Anhalt branch of the AfD is one of several regional party chapters classified as a confirmed right-wing extremist group by Germany’s domestic intelligence service — an allegation the party has forcefully denied.
In a joint statement earlier this week, the AfD’s national co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla defended the party’s policy agenda. They argued the AfD “wants to implement the law of the land — for example with a view to illegal migration — and ensure that Germany remains worth living in.” The pair criticized the governing record of mainstream parties, framing an absolute AfD majority as “almost the only chance to change course” for the region and the country.
Chancellor Merz has already warned that an AfD-led regional government would be a self-defeating move for Saxony-Anhalt’s economy. “If there were to be an absolute majority for a right-wing populist party next Monday, then international investors will think three times about whether they still invest in Saxony-Anhalt,” he said. Ahead of voting day, thousands of demonstrators gathered in Magdeburg, the state capital, to rally against the prospect of a far-right regional administration.
Despite consistent polling showing strong AfD support, the party’s path to power remains uncertain even if it outperforms all other contenders by a wide margin. Siegmund has stated he will only pursue the governorship if the AfD secures an absolute majority, arguing that this outcome is the only way to avoid the pattern of broken pre-election campaign promises that has plagued multi-party coalitions in the region. If the AfD falls short of a full majority, analysts agree the party is extremely unlikely to find any willing coalition partner among mainstream parties.
The final outcome of the election could also become far more complicated depending on whether smaller opposition parties clear the 5% popular vote threshold required to earn seats in the state legislature. The center-left Social Democrats and the Green Party are both considered at risk of falling short of this cutoff, which would reshape the seat distribution and any potential coalition negotiations.
The incumbent CDU governor, Sven Schulze, has echoed mainstream party policy, confirming he will never enter a governing arrangement with the AfD and stating that his own party stands “100%” behind his leadership. Even so, if the AfD wins the most seats but fails to secure an absolute majority, Schulze will face a major challenge in assembling a stable governing coalition.
This scenario is not without precedent: just two years ago, the AfD finished first in a state election in neighboring Thuringia, but was unable to form a government, and a CDU governor took power via a minority administration. Schulze could attempt a similar arrangement by forming a loose alliance with smaller parties, but this would be a precarious undertaking. Any minority government would almost certainly require at least tacit backing from The Left Party, a hard-left group the CDU has explicitly ruled out working with.
This election is just the first of three major electoral tests facing Merz’s CDU and its national coalition partner, the Social Democrats, in the coming weeks. Two more state elections will be held on September 20: one in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, another eastern German state where the incumbent center-left government is facing a strong challenge from the AfD, and a second in the capital city of Berlin, which is currently governed by the CDU. Political observers across Germany and across Europe are watching the results closely, as a historic AfD win in Saxony-Anhalt would signal a major political shift in the country’s post-Cold War political landscape.