Dubai’s commercial property landscape is undergoing a fundamental structural transformation that will culminate in a distinct two-tier market system by 2028, according to real estate experts. This market reset will see premium next-generation Grade A office spaces commanding substantial price premiums while older commercial buildings face increasing competitive pressures.
The transformation comes despite impressive short-term performance metrics. Commercial real estate transactions have demonstrated remarkable growth throughout the current year, with sales value surging by 77.9 percent to reach AED 15.5 billion during the first eleven months, while transaction volume increased by 35.1 percent to 5,364 deals compared to the same period last year.
According to Firs Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, the commercial sector has lagged significantly behind Dubai’s residential market in architectural innovation and quality standards for over fifteen years. “Since 2008, Dubai has not witnessed a genuine new generation of office developments,” Al Msaddi noted. “The residential segment underwent comprehensive transformation with new design languages, architectural standards, and construction codes, while the commercial sector awaited its reset moment.”
The market shift will accelerate as the first wave of next-generation Grade A office buildings begins delivery in 2028. This influx of modern, efficient, and architecturally relevant office spaces will provide tenants with superior alternatives, fundamentally reshaping market dynamics and pricing structures across Dubai’s commercial landscape.
Al Msaddi cited Vision Tower in Business Bay as a precursor to this trend, noting its consistent market outperformance due to its appeal to established corporate tenants. The building’s minimum half-floor requirement naturally filters for serious companies, demonstrating the substantial latent demand for genuine Grade A office space in Dubai.
The emerging two-tier system will see commercial properties repricing according to quality benchmarks, creating distinct market segments with varying valuation models and tenant profiles.