Dollar extends gains on rate cut doubts and safety play; pound slips

The U.S. dollar surged to a four-month high against the euro on Tuesday, driven by growing doubts about another Federal Reserve rate cut this year and heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid a risk-off market sentiment. The euro declined for the fifth consecutive session, falling 0.3% to $1.148, its lowest level since August 1. Meanwhile, the British pound tumbled after UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves highlighted the challenging economic conditions ahead of her upcoming budget, emphasizing high debt, low productivity, and persistent inflation. Market sentiment remained subdued, with stocks declining and government bonds attracting investors. Safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc held steady. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six others, surpassed 100 for the first time since early August, reaching 100.17. Traders now estimate a 65% chance of a December rate cut, down from 94% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to $0.6496 after the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its cash rate at 3.60%, signaling caution about further easing. Cryptocurrency Bitcoin dropped 2% to $107,486, its weakest since June. The yen, nearing levels that prompted Japanese intervention in 2022 and 2024, remained under pressure, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterating the government’s vigilance over currency movements. Analysts noted that U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent criticism of countries allowing their currencies to weaken could influence Japan’s approach.