The global oil market is teetering on the edge of a significant shift as Brent crude prices hover near $61 a barrel, with analysts warning of a potential collapse to $50 if demand softens further. The delicate balance between OPEC+ production increases and waning global consumption is under intense scrutiny, setting the stage for a pivotal moment in the energy landscape for 2026. Brent crude traded at $61.2 last week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $57.5, both benchmarks down nearly 15% year-to-date. Bank of America (BofA) remains optimistic, defending a $55 price floor, citing steady Asian demand and OPEC+ supply discipline. However, Citigroup predicts a deeper slide to $50, driven by fading economic momentum and geopolitical risk premiums. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports global oil supply surged by 760,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, reaching 108 million bpd—the highest since 2019. OPEC forecasts global demand at 105.1 million bpd in 2025 and 106.5 million bpd in 2026, with annual growth of 1.4%. OPEC+ recently approved a modest output hike of 137,000 bpd for November, contributing to rising oversupply concerns. The IEA warns that global inventories could hit record highs by 2026 unless demand accelerates. BofA expects Brent to average $61 in Q4 2025 and rise to $64 in early 2026, citing structural support at $55. Citigroup, however, sees a sharper decline, fueled by easing geopolitical tensions and weaker Chinese data. Geopolitical factors, including U.S.-China trade tensions and India’s resistance to curbing Russian crude imports, add further volatility. Technically, Brent is caught between support at $55 and resistance at $63.50–$64. A weekly close below $55 could validate Citigroup’s bearish outlook, while a move above $64 would support BofA’s stabilization thesis. Analysts anticipate consolidation rather than collapse, but sentiment remains fragile, with the market vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks.