The most storied rivalry in international rugby is set to reignite this Saturday, as South Africa’s Springboks and New Zealand’s All Blacks kick off their first four-match series in half a century at Johannesburg’s iconic Ellis Park stadium. While both head coaches, South Africa’s Rassie Erasmus and New Zealand’s Dave Rennie, publicly downplay the do-or-die stakes of the opening test, history and pre-tour analysis tell a different story.
Only once in the shared history of these two rugby giants has a team come back from an opening test defeat to claim the overall series. That historic comeback came in 1937, when Philip Nel’s underdog Springbok side outmuscled the All Blacks at their home ground to reverse an opening loss and take the series. Statistically, that means the winner of Saturday’s clash will hold a massive advantage going into the remaining three matches.
Going into the opening test, much of the pre-series speculation has tipped the All Blacks as slight underdogs, with analysts identifying two opportunities for Dave Rennie’s side to steal a critical test win: this Saturday’s opening clash at Ellis Park, where the Springboks are widely reported to be carrying a layer of competitive rust after a limited lead-up schedule, and the fourth and final test, which will be held on neutral ground in Baltimore, USA. Still, when speaking to reporters ahead of this weekend’s match following team announcements, Rennie avoided playing into predictions of his side’s chances.
“Whoever doesn’t win the first test will say it doesn’t matter because there’s three to go,” Rennie noted Thursday. “Both sides want to start well. Drawing first blood would help.”
For Erasmus, the stakes of the opening test carry extra context: the South African coach already has experience fighting back from an opening series defeat, after his side toppled the British and Irish Lions in 2021 despite dropping the first match. That experience has left him confident the series can go the full distance, regardless of Saturday’s result, even as he acknowledged the strategic advantage of an early win.
“How we start is important. You win the first match you have a better chance of winning (the series), because win another one and you can’t lose it,” Erasmus explained. “We’ve learned from the Lions series, we’ve learned from World Cup pool matches that are lost early, it’s only going to be determined in game three.”
One of the biggest talking points ahead of the opening test is Erasmus’ decision to leave inspirational Springbok captain Siya Kolisi out of the match day starting lineup. Kolisi has suffered two hamstring injuries in the past two months, limiting him to just 25 minutes of competitive game play in that stretch, though Erasmus confirmed the captain was fit enough to be selected.
“Siya trained well with us this week and we could have selected him,” Erasmus said. Instead, the coach opted for in-form flanker Paul de Villiers, who made his international debut last month filling in for Kolisi in the number 6 jersey and quickly emerged as one of South Africa’s breakout standouts of the July test window.
The Springboks’ starting lineup also brings several key players back from injury: loosehead prop Ox Nché returns to the side seven weeks after sustaining a knee injury against England, while veteran center Damian de Allende is set to earn his 100th test cap, becoming only the 10th Springbok player to hit the milestone. De Allende will partner with Jesse Kriel, who is set to play his 91st test, in the South African midfield.
“He’s a great team man,” Erasmus said of de Allende. “He will certainly not let the occasion shadow what he has to do on the field.”
For the All Blacks, Rennie confirmed that three backs who had previously carried injury concerns — Cam Roigard, Will Jordan and Damian McKenzie — have all been named to the starting lineup. All three, along with All Blacks captain Ardie Savea, will make their first appearances on the 2026 tour on Saturday.
Full starting lineups for the opening test are as follows:
**South Africa**: Damian Willemse, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lend Arendse, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Grant Williams; Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), Paul de Villiers, Ruan Nortjé, Eben Etzebeth, Wilco Louw, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nché. Reserves: Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Gerhard Steenekamp, Zachary Porthen, Cobus Wiese, André Esterhuizen, Marco van Staden, Cobus Reinach, Manie Libbok.
**New Zealand**: Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan, Quinn Tupaea, Jordie Barrett, Josh Moorby, Ruben Love, Cam Roigard; Ardie Savea (captain), Luke Jacobson, Tupou Vaa’i, Fabian Holland, Josh Lord, Tyrel Lomax, Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot. Reserves: Asafo Aumua, George Bower, Fletcher Newell, Anton Segner, Peter Lakai, Kyle Preston, Anton Lienert-Brown, Leroy Carter.









