分类： politics

In a high-stakes move that reshapes regional diplomatic dynamics, Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has ordered the creation of a specialized high-level investigative committee to probe networks smuggling advanced weapons from Iraq through Syria to Lebanon’s Iran-aligned Hezbollah, in direct coordination with Syria’s new post-Assad administration.

The announcement follows a confirmed seizure by Syrian security forces earlier this Thursday, which foiled an attempted smuggling operation along the Syria-Iraq border. According to Syria’s state-owned news agency Sana, citing an anonymous interior ministry source, the intercepted cache was explicitly bound for Hezbollah and contained a lethal arsenal including long-range missiles, anti-armor guided munitions, and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Iraq’s Joint Operations Command, a military body that reports directly to the prime minister’s office, has pledged full accountability for any officials found complicit in the smuggling activity. The command emphasized that the investigation is focused on protecting the integrity of Iraq’s shared border, upholding national stability, and blocking actions that threaten the country’s national security.

The probe comes against a shifting geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East. Syria’s current ruling administration took power in December 2024 after ousting former President Bashar al-Assad, a long-standing close ally of both Iran and Iraq. During Syria’s decade-long civil war, multiple Iraqi armed factions deployed into Syrian territory to back Assad against opposition forces, with some of these factions holding key influence over the Iraqi government that took office in May 2024.

Like all preceding Iraqi governments, Iraq’s current administration has navigated a precarious balancing act between its eastern neighbor Iran and the United States alongside its Western and regional allies. Even as Baghdad has moved to build constructive diplomatic ties with Syria’s new government and support efforts to stabilize the war-torn country, it has faced sustained pressure from Washington to crack down on Iran-aligned armed groups operating within its borders, particularly those targeting U.S. and Israeli assets across the Middle East.

The escalating standoff between the U.S. and Iran has pushed Iraqi leaders to reiterate their commitment to cooperation with Washington, with al-Zaidi overseeing negotiations to expand bilateral partnership during an official visit to the U.S. capital this week.

Hayder al-Shakeri, a research fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at London-based think tank Chatham House, explained that the investigation serves a clear diplomatic purpose. Al-Shakeri told Middle East Eye that the move allows Baghdad to demonstrate it operates independently of pro-Iran armed factions, sending a clear signal to the U.S. that the Iraqi government is ready to assert tighter control over unregulated cross-border networks.

However, al-Shakeri also cautioned that the true nature of the policy shift remains to be seen. “But whether this reflects a genuine, sustained policy shift, rather than a tactical gesture, will depend on whether the government follows through with arrests, prosecutions, tighter border enforcement, and action against the political or security figures protecting these networks,” he said.

In a striking intersection of global football diplomacy and long-simmering political tensions, multiple senior Israeli politicians took to social media platforms on Wednesday to openly celebrate Argentina’s World Cup semi-final win over England, using the match result as an opportunity to taunt the United Kingdom while highlighting close ties between Israel and Argentina’s new right-wing administration.

The most pointed jab came from Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who published his reaction on X within minutes of the final whistle. Smotrich, who was banned from entering the UK last year over his anti-Palestinian political positions, referenced his travel ban in his provocative post: “I indeed cannot enter Britain because I am exterminating the idea of the Palestinian state, but two goals got in nicely,” a nod to the two late match-winning goals Argentina scored against England.

Smotrich went on to extend congratulations to Argentine President Javier Milei, whom he explicitly labeled a close friend of Israel. His far-right coalition partner, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir – who was also sanctioned by the UK alongside Smotrich in 2023 – echoed the celebration. In a post on his own X account, Ben Gvir wrote, “Honour to whom honour is due, and now with faith toward the final.” Hours before kickoff, he had already made his allegiance clear, asking followers, “Do I really have to explain to you why I pray with all my heart for Argentina to win tonight and make it into the final?”

The UK’s 2023 sanctions on Smotrich and Ben Gvir came after then-Foreign Secretary David Lammy accused the two senior ministers of inciting extremist violence and perpetrating serious abuses against Palestinian human rights. Smotrich has spearheaded Israel’s push for de facto annexation of large swathes of the occupied West Bank, while Ben Gvir leads Israel’s prison and detention system – a facility network multiple international human rights organizations have documented as operating what they term “torture camps.” Both men have also been identified as key decision-makers in Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, which has drawn widespread international condemnation for mass civilian casualties.

The political celebration of Argentina’s win was not limited to the two far-right ministers already sanctioned by the UK. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, who has Argentine ancestral roots and held talks with Lammy in London last year, joined in the taunting with a playful jab at England’s iconic fan chant. “How does the song go? ‘It’s coming home.’ Yes, it is. It’s coming home to Argentina. Vamos Argentina,” he wrote on X.

Sa’ar is currently based in the United States for a series of diplomatic meetings with Latin American allies of Israel. A formal statement from Israel’s foreign ministry confirmed that alongside discussions about political shifts across Latin America and regional security threats, the delegation “also raised a glass to Argentina’s impressive victory in the World Cup semi-final.”

Israel’s current government has positioned right-wing leaders across Latin America, including Milei, as key strategic allies, with most of these leaders publicly backing Israel’s actions in Gaza. Even ahead of Argentina’s win over England, Sa’ar secured a diplomatic breakthrough during meetings with Colombia’s incoming foreign minister Omar Bula Escobar, where the two sides agreed to restore full diplomatic relations after years of strained ties triggered by Colombia’s criticism of Israel’s Gaza war.

Other senior Israeli figures also publicly backed Argentina ahead of and after the semi-final match. Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon posted a simple, clear message of support: “Vamos Argentina.” Transport Minister Miri Regev, a senior member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party, extended congratulations directly to the Argentine public and Milei, adding, “Keeping my fingers crossed for you in the final” – ahead of Argentina’s upcoming final match against Spain, one of the most vocal critics of Israel’s policies in Europe.

Argentina’s progression to a second consecutive World Cup final, following their 2022 trophy win in Qatar, has not been without controversy. Multiple contentious refereeing decisions throughout the tournament have sparked widespread accusations that FIFA has shown undue favoritism to the South American side. Scrutiny has been particularly intense across the Arab world: after Argentina’s narrow last-16 win over Egypt, Egyptian head coach Hossam Hassan publicly accused FIFA of pushing Argentina through for commercial and marketing reasons, sparking a broad wave of criticism of both the governing body and the Argentine team.

In a wide-ranging interview with prominent podcaster Joe Rogan this week, U.S. Vice President JD Vance made explosive claims linking disgraced convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein to the highest echelons of both American and Israeli intelligence circles, while also accusing hardline elements within the Israeli government of funding a covert influence campaign to derail the recent Iran negotiation agreement he spearheaded.

Vance, who identified himself as an “original Epstein conspiracy theorist,” doubled down on long-circulated unconfirmed speculation about the late financier’s intelligence connections. When Rogan noted that a widespread popular narrative frames Epstein as an asset for Israel’s Mossad external intelligence agency, Vance said the connections could extend to either the Central Intelligence Agency, deep state actors in the U.S., Israeli intelligence, or a combination of multiple groups. He specifically pointed to ties between Epstein and left-leaning figures in Israel’s deep political establishment, naming former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak as a key example, noting that Epstein’s connections did not extend to Israel’s center-right political bloc.

For decades, unsubstantiated theories have circulated about whether Epstein operated on behalf of a foreign or domestic intelligence service. The disgraced financier, who died in prison in 2019 while awaiting new sex trafficking charges, built a sprawling network of relationships with rich and powerful global figures, from former U.S. President Bill Clinton to pro-Israel billionaire retail magnate Les Wexner, senior British politician Peter Mandelson, and Prince Andrew, Duke of York, the late Queen Elizabeth II’s second son. Over his decades in elite social circles, Epstein was widely reported to have collected extensive compromising information on his high-profile contacts, a common intelligence tradecraft tactic for leverage.

While no conclusive public evidence has ever emerged to confirm Epstein worked as an active intelligence asset for any nation, multiple official and unofficial records have hinted at potential connections. Earlier this year, a senior adviser to the Indian government publicly stated “100 percent” that Epstein was a Mossad asset when asked directly. The publicly released Epstein court documents confirm that the financier made donations to prominent Israeli causes, including Friends of the Israel Defense Forces and the Jewish National Fund, a group that supports Israeli West Bank settlements, and document his repeated personal connections to current and former members of Mossad. A 2020 FBI memo from the bureau’s Los Angeles field office also noted that an anonymous source had claimed Epstein was a “co-opted Mossad agent” who received formal spy training from the Israeli service.

Beyond his claims about Epstein, Vance used the Rogan interview to level serious accusations about Israeli interference in American domestic and foreign policy, specifically targeting the Iran nuclear negotiation framework he spent months negotiating. The preliminary memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, signed just last month, has already collapsed, and the two nations have resumed direct cross-border military strikes in recent weeks.

According to Vance, a well-funded, covert campaign is actively working to scuttle the Iran deal to perpetuate ongoing military conflict. He specifically confirmed that some of the funding for this campaign originates from Israeli government-linked actors, referencing a recent Time magazine exposé detailing an organized Israeli influence operation targeting the Make America Great Again (MAGA) conservative base that Vance is courting as he positions himself as a potential 2028 Republican presidential candidate and a political heir to former President Donald Trump. The Time report alleges that Brad Parscale, who served as digital campaign strategist for Trump’s 2020 presidential run, receives $1.5 million per month to run the influence operation. Vance said the operation pays multiple American influencers to attack his Iran negotiation efforts, and that these critics have launched vicious personal attacks against him in an effort to keep the U.S. tied to indefinite military escalation against Iran.

“I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that there have been people within the Israeli government who are trying to, like, actually shift us away from that policy [the Iran negotiations] because they want to continue the military campaign,” Vance told Rogan.

The vice president pushed back against hardline hawks in the U.S. political system who have opposed the Iran deal, challenging them to present a viable alternative to negotiations. He framed himself as a “reasonable moderate” in the deeply polarized American debate over Israel policy, noting that he has faced widespread baseless accusations of antisemitism for his push for negotiations with Iran, which he called “insane.”

When asked whether the U.S. would have entered its most recent open war with Iran if not for Israeli influence efforts, Vance replied, “Yes, yes I do.” He clarified that he shares the Biden administration’s core position that Iran must not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon, a stance he said the president holds independent of external pressure.

Vance also rejected the theory that Israel is able to coerce former President Trump using the Epstein files or other compromising material, calling that claim “crazy.”

As Israel prepares for its 27 October parliamentary election, a newly released public opinion survey from broadcaster Channel 13 has delivered a potentially game-changing projection: a coalition of opposition parties united by the goal of ousting long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would win the slimmest possible governing majority, securing 61 out of the 120 seats in the Knesset. This marks the first major poll released in over a month that shows the anti-Netanyahu bloc capable of forming a majority government without relying on support from Palestinian-majority political parties.

Breaking down the projected seat shares, the poll forecasts that former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party will capture 21 seats, falling just one seat short of Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party, which is projected to take 22 seats. Following the two leading blocs are former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Together alliance at 15 seats, Yair Golan’s Democrats at 11 seats, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu at 10 seats. The final four seats required to push the opposition bloc across the 61-seat threshold would go to a new alliance led by Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper.

By contrast, the current coalition of far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties aligned with Netanyahu falls well short of a majority in the projection. United Torah Judaism is forecast to win 8 seats, while Shas and Itamar Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power take 7 seats apiece, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party is projected to win 6 seats. For Palestinian-majority parties, the poll projects Hadash-Ta’al will win 5 seats and Ra’am will take 4, while the Balad party and former Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White both fail to cross the minimum electoral threshold required to gain parliamentary representation. Notably, Channel 13 has not released public details of the poll’s sample size or margin of error, leaving its methodological transparency unconfirmed.

While Eisenkot has positioned himself as a leading figure in the movement to oust Netanyahu, his past policy stances suggest little substantive shift in Israeli policy toward the Gaza Strip if he enters government. As a member of Netanyahu’s wartime war cabinet in 2024 during the ongoing conflict in Gaza, Eisenkot privately discussed plans to restrict humanitarian access that would exacerbate widespread starvation among Palestinian civilians, a policy that Netanyahu ultimately implemented to push Gaza into a state of famine.

The release of the poll comes amid growing controversy over efforts by Netanyahu’s allies to restrict ballot access ahead of the vote, moves widely interpreted as an attempt to suppress turnout among voters likely to oppose the prime minister. Israeli newspaper Haaretz recently reported that senior officials in Transportation Minister Miri Regev’s office held discussions about imposing strict restrictions on incoming international flights immediately before election day, including limits on charter travel. Officials involved in those talks acknowledged the policy was motivated by fears that tens of thousands of Israeli citizens living overseas would return home to cast votes against Netanyahu.

In a separate restrictive move, a Knesset committee has advanced legislation that would eliminate dedicated polling stations at retirement and assisted-living facilities across the country. The change is projected to impact approximately 37,000 eligible voters, a population demographic that overwhelmingly opposes Netanyahu, and that number roughly equals the total number of votes required to secure one full Knesset seat.

While consecutive recent polls have consistently shown Netanyahu’s incumbent coalition at risk of defeat, Israel’s deeply fragmented political landscape still creates significant uncertainty for the opposition’s path to power. Even if the anti-Netanyahu bloc secures a narrow majority, negotiating a stable governing agreement across its multiple competing factions could prove a major challenge.