Conservative Party delegates are preparing for a pivotal leadership review of Pierre Poilievre this Friday in Calgary, following the party’s electoral defeat last April. While internal support appears robust, with expectations of a decisive victory, the leader confronts a profoundly divided Canadian electorate that questions his capacity to govern the nation through uncertain geopolitical times.
Polling data from Abacus Data reveals a stark contrast in perceptions: while a strong majority of Conservative base voters endorse Poilievre’s leadership—particularly praising his effectiveness in highlighting Liberal government failures on housing affordability and his appeal to younger demographics—over half of the general Canadian public maintains negative views. Critics frequently characterize his political tone as excessively confrontational, creating what pollster David Coletto describes as a “deeply polarised” perception that poses significant electoral challenges.
The geopolitical landscape presents particular complications. Poilievre has faced persistent scrutiny regarding his approach to U.S. President Donald Trump, who remains deeply unpopular among Canadians. Many view Trump’s tariff policies and references to Canada as a “51st state” as existential threats. Poilievre’s populist style has occasionally drawn comparisons to Trump, further complicating his public appeal.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent address at the World Economic Forum in Davos highlighted this contrast. Widely praised by international observers for its clear articulation of Canada’s stance toward Trump’s administration, the speech boosted Liberal polling numbers to 47% among decided voters according to Léger’s latest survey. Meanwhile, Conservatives gained two points to reach 38%, indicating solid base support despite the Liberal surge.
Former communications director Ben Woodfinden acknowledges the need for clearer Conservative positioning on Trump, noting that the next election will likely occur during Trump’s presidency. However, strategists emphasize Poilievre’s success in revitalizing the party and expanding its base to record numbers despite electoral setbacks.
Recent developments suggest potential tonal shifts. Poilievre offered rare praise for Carney’s Davos speech while criticizing Liberal economic policies, and signaled willingness to collaborate on domestic issues like grocery tax rebates and bail reform. His upcoming address to party delegates will be closely watched for indications of how he plans to bridge the polarization gap and position Conservatives for future electoral success.