作者： admin

The United States government has entered a shutdown in 2025, marking the first federal closure in nearly seven years. The crisis unfolded after the Senate failed to pass a spending bill, leaving federal operations severely curtailed. While the shutdown is expected to end eventually, the timeline remains uncertain, with public pressure and political maneuvering likely to play decisive roles in its resolution. Here are four potential scenarios for how the situation might unfold. Senate Democrats rejected a Republican-backed spending bill that would have funded the government until November. However, the vote revealed cracks in Democratic unity, as two Democrats and one independent aligned with the Republican majority. Among them was Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, who faces re-election in a state that has been trending Republican. Her vote, driven by concerns over the economic impact of the shutdown on Nevada, highlights the political risks for Democrats in battleground states. Other vulnerable Democrats in Georgia, Virginia, and Colorado may also feel the heat as the shutdown drags on. Republican Senate leader John Thune has signaled plans to hold additional funding votes to maintain pressure on Democrats. If five more Democrats defect, the shutdown could end regardless of the party’s broader stance. Meanwhile, the prolonged closure is already affecting government employees, who face delayed paychecks and potential job losses. The broader public will also feel the impact through reduced government services and economic disruption. Historically, the party seen as triggering the shutdown bears the brunt of public blame. In this case, Democrats may face criticism for their role in the impasse, potentially forcing them to reconsider their strategy. However, the party could find solace in highlighting Republican-backed cuts to health insurance subsidies for low-income Americans, a move that could resonate with voters. Republicans, emboldened by their perceived strength, are exploring ways to intensify pressure on Democrats. Yet, they risk overplaying their hand, as past shutdowns have often backfired on the party initiating them. A potential compromise could involve Republicans extending health insurance subsidies, a move that would benefit their own low-income constituents while defusing Democratic attacks. Despite the current acrimony, there may be room for negotiation. Both parties have engaged in heated rhetoric, with President Trump sharing AI-generated videos mocking opponents and Democrats responding with provocative imagery. The stakes are high, as the 2025 shutdown could surpass the record 35-day closure of 2018-2019, which ended only after air travel faced imminent disruption. This time, the consequences could be even more severe. If the shutdown persists, both parties may face public backlash, leading to electoral losses in the 2026 midterms. Such a scenario could further erode public trust in the political system, paving the way for new leaders promising to dismantle the status quo.

In a significant legal development, the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that Lisa Cook can retain her position as a Federal Reserve governor, marking a setback for former President Donald Trump in his ongoing dispute with the central bank. The court, in an unsigned order, rejected Trump’s request to immediately remove Cook and scheduled arguments regarding her dismissal for January. Trump had announced in August his intention to fire Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud, which she has vehemently denied. Cook swiftly filed a lawsuit, arguing that her removal was unlawful and could pave the way for political interference in the traditionally independent Federal Reserve. Historically, no president has attempted to remove a Fed governor, as such actions can only be justified ‘for cause,’ a term that remains undefined in the law. A federal judge had previously placed a stay on her dismissal, a decision now upheld by the Supreme Court. Cook, appointed by President Biden, plays a crucial role on the board that sets the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate. The court’s ruling ensures she will participate in at least two more votes on potential rate cuts. Trump has accused Cook of falsifying a mortgage application prior to her appointment, but she contends that his real motive is her stance on monetary policy. The Federal Reserve recently announced its first rate cut in nearly a year, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing that the decision was driven by economic data rather than political pressure. The central bank’s ‘dual mandate’ focuses on controlling inflation and maximizing employment, with mortgage rates largely influenced by Treasury bond yields rather than direct Fed actions. Trump’s persistent criticism of the Fed and his unprecedented move to appoint White House economic adviser Stephen Miran to a temporary board vacancy underscore the ongoing tension between the administration and the central bank.

The United States has witnessed its 11th government shutdown since 1980, a phenomenon that remains uniquely American. Unlike other nations where governments continue to function even during wars or constitutional crises, the US shutdowns have become a political bargaining tool. This recurring issue stems from the federal system of government, where different branches can be controlled by opposing parties. While the founders intended this structure to foster compromise, it has increasingly led to gridlock. The 1980 reinterpretation of the 1884 Anti-Deficiency Act, which mandates that no budget means no spending, has further entrenched this practice. In contrast, non-parliamentary democracies like Brazil and parliamentary systems in Europe ensure continuity of government services even during budget disputes. The US shutdowns have significant consequences, including unpaid federal workers, halted services, and economic impacts. For instance, the 2018-2019 shutdown, the longest on record, reduced GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points weekly. While essential services like social security and the military continue, other functions like national parks and tax refunds are suspended. Globally, such shutdowns are rare, as seen in Canada and Ireland, where minority governments maintained operations through cooperation. In the US, however, political polarization has made shutdowns a weapon in partisan battles. As Democrats and Republicans continue to clash, the functioning of the government remains at risk, highlighting the need for systemic reform.