As the armed conflict in the Middle East stretches into its second month, global energy markets have been thrown into chaos, with oil prices surging to multi-month highs amid disrupted supply chains. In this tense geopolitical landscape, China has emerged as an unexpected peace broker, joining Pakistan to table a five-point peace initiative aimed at securing an immediate ceasefire and reopening the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s daily oil supplies pass.
The move comes as former U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that direct American military action against Iran could wrap up within two to three weeks, though no clear timeline or post-conflict plan has been laid out to date. Pakistan, a long-time U.S. ally that has positioned itself as an unlikely intermediary in the U.S.-Israel led campaign against Iran, has reportedly already gained Trump’s ear for its mediation efforts. China’s entry into the fray comes just weeks ahead of high-stakes trade talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Trump, placing Beijing directly in a role as a diplomatic counterweight to Washington in the region.
Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University and a leading Chinese expert on Middle East affairs, described Chinese backing for the initiative as “very important.” He noted that “Morally, politically and diplomatically, China is providing comprehensive support with the hope that Pakistan can play a more distinctive role” in de-escalating the conflict. This marks a notable shift for Beijing, which had maintained a relatively muted public response to the war since it began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.
The joint peace plan took shape after Pakistan’s foreign minister traveled to Beijing to formally request Chinese backing for Pakistan’s negotiation efforts. Following the meeting, Chinese Foreign Ministry officials confirmed that the two countries were making “new efforts towards advocating for peace,” releasing a joint statement that reaffirmed dialogue and diplomacy as “the only viable option to resolve conflicts” and called for the protection of global key waterways including the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
While energy security is a core consideration for Beijing, analysts note that the world’s largest crude importer currently holds enough strategic stockpiles to cover its domestic needs for the next several months. Instead, China’s decision to step into the mediation role is rooted in its broader pursuit of global economic stability, a priority that is closely tied to Beijing’s efforts to reboot its post-recovery sluggish domestic economy. A prolonged energy shock triggered by the conflict would drag down global growth, which would in turn hit Chinese factories and export-dependent sectors that are central to the country’s economic rebound.
Matt Pottinger, chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracy’s China Program, explained that “If the rest of the world begins to slow down economically because of an energy shock, that’s going to be tough for China’s factories and exporters. That’s why I think when I see China’s foreign minister just this week advising Iran that we need to find a way to end this war, I think there’s some sincerity there. I think that Beijing is a little bit worried about where this could lead if it turns into a real energy shock that is protracted.”
A prolonged crisis would send ripples through China’s sprawling industrial supply chain, from raw material inputs for plastic goods and synthetic textiles to critical components for consumer electronics, electric vehicles and semiconductors – sectors that are foundational to China’s export economy. In recent years, the Middle East has become one of China’s fastest growing export markets, with Chinese sales to the region growing nearly twice as fast as exports to the rest of the world in the last year. The region is the world’s fastest growing market for electric vehicles, and China is the largest foreign investor in regional desalination projects, with major Chinese state-owned energy and infrastructure firms operating across Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iraq.
This deepening economic engagement has allowed China to build balanced diplomatic ties across the region, maintaining strong relationships with both U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia and geopolitical rivals of Washington such as Iran. China and Iran have maintained a close partnership spanning decades, with China serving as Iran’s largest trade partner and purchasing roughly 80% of Iran’s total oil exports.
This is not the first time Beijing has sought to play the role of peace broker in the Middle East, though previous efforts have yielded mixed results. In 2023, China famously brokered a landmark deal to restore diplomatic relations between longtime regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, a breakthrough that reduced the risk of open conflict between the two powers. A year later, Beijing hosted leaders from 14 competing Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas, resulting in an agreement to form a national unity government for the Palestinian territories. While the agreement was largely an expression of intent rather than a binding final settlement, it further cemented China’s growing diplomatic profile in the region.
Unlike the United States, which maintains a heavy military presence across the Gulf region, China’s global engagement does not come with formal security guarantees or military alliances. For Beijing, economic development remains the top domestic and foreign policy priority, and Chinese leaders have long avoided direct entanglement in Middle East great power conflicts. This cautious approach also reflects practical limitations: China’s only overseas military logistics facility in the broader region is a small anti-piracy hub in Djibouti, opened in 2017, and it lacks the power projection capabilities that the U.S. maintains across the Gulf. During the 2025 Israel-Iran war, Beijing maintained a largely hands-off approach, highlighting the inherent limits of its regional influence.
To date, neither Washington nor Tehran has issued an official response to the new five-point peace plan. Analysts note that the initiative nonetheless allows Xi to position himself as a neutral broker and voice for de-escalation, a stark contrast to the Trump administration’s approach of military pressure. Still, Beijing’s credibility as a neutral global actor faces ongoing questions: its close strategic alignment with Russia has sparked widespread skepticism about its commitment to neutrality in regional conflicts, while its authoritarian governance model and expansionist territorial claims have drawn global criticism.
Despite these caveats, China remains a powerful global actor with clear strategic interests in regional stability, and it has already demonstrated that it can wield meaningful diplomatic influence in the Middle East. For Beijing, the current mediation effort marks another step in its long-term push to expand its geopolitical leverage across the region in the years ahead.
