United Nations security experts have issued a stark warning that the Al-Shabab extremist organization continues to represent the most severe immediate danger to regional stability in Somalia and neighboring nations, particularly Kenya. According to a comprehensive report released Wednesday by UN monitoring specialists, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group persists in executing sophisticated asymmetric operations despite concerted counterterrorism efforts by Somali authorities and international forces.
The expert assessment reveals that Al-Shabab’s threat profile extends beyond high-profile attack capabilities to include sophisticated extortion networks, systematic forced recruitment campaigns, and a highly effective propaganda apparatus. The group demonstrated its operational reach within the Somali capital on March 18 by attempting to assassinate the nation’s president in Mogadishu.
In response to the persistent security challenges, the UN Security Council unanimously voted Tuesday to extend the African Union’s stabilization mandate in Somalia through December 31, 2026. The approved peacekeeping contingent will maintain 11,826 uniformed personnel, including 680 police officers.
The report documents that Al-Shabab has conducted approximately six attacks monthly within Kenyan territory during 2024, primarily targeting border regions of Mandera and Lamu counties. These operations employ improvised explosive devices against security forces, infrastructure sabotage, kidnappings, residential raids, and livestock theft.
UN analysts confirm that Al-Shabab’s strategic objectives remain unchanged: overthrow the Somali government, expel international forces, and establish a Greater Somalia under strict Islamic governance that would unite ethnic Somali populations across East Africa.
Additionally, the monitoring panel investigated Islamic State operations in Somalia, reporting that ISIL-Somalia has recruited fighters globally with approximately 60% of its 1,000+ combatants originating from outside Somalia. Despite operating with significantly fewer resources than Al-Shabab, the Islamic State faction constitutes an emerging threat to regional security.