Two weeks ago, a celebratory announcement in Baku painted a rosy picture of Turkey-Azerbaijan cooperation. Senior Turkish military and defense industry figures gathered with Azerbaijani counterparts to unveil $500 million in new arms supply contracts, a visible milestone in the bilateral relationship shaped by shared ethnic, religious, cultural, and historical bonds. This partnership was formalized and deepened by the 2021 Shusha Declaration, a mutual defense pact that anchored the two nations’ commitment to one another’s security. Beyond defense, the alliance has grown to encompass multi-billion-dollar cross-investments spanning energy, transportation, construction, and agriculture, making the sudden public eruption of tension all the more striking.