After four years of tentative, fragile calm, long-simmering conflict in Yemen has reignited dramatically, with Houthi rebel forces scoring major territorial gains against internationally recognized Yemeni government troops in recent weeks. The insurgents have seized control of the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha, along with multiple nearby islands, establishing a military foothold just kilometers from the Bab al-Mandeb Strait — a critical global trade artery that connects shipping lanes between Asia and Europe.
This rapid territorial push has sent deep alarm through Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s northern neighbor and the primary backer of the Yemeni government, for three interconnected reasons that cut across regional security and global energy markets. First, the Houthi advance marks a clear military defeat for Riyadh and the fragmented pro-government coalition it has supported with billions of dollars in military aid and financial backing since 2015. The retreat of Saudi-aligned forces along the western coast exposes long-running weaknesses in the coalition’s coordination and combat capacity.
Second, the strategic shift comes at a moment when Saudi Arabia has become far more dependent on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait for its oil exports. Following the 2026 outbreak of open conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran that effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — the kingdom’s traditional primary export route — Riyadh has redirected nearly all of its energy shipments through Bab al-Mandeb. With Houthi forces now controlling large swathes of Yemen’s western coast adjacent to the strait, the group gains the ability to severely restrict or block Saudi energy exports at will.
Third, the Houthi movement’s long-standing military and political alliance with Iran means Tehran now holds potential influence over two of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints for global oil trade. As of June 2026, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait carries approximately 7% of the world’s total seaborne oil supplies, placing a large share of global energy flows within reach of Iranian-aligned forces.
To understand how the conflict reached this breaking point, it is necessary to trace decades of instability in Yemen. The Houthi movement first emerged in the 1990s as a grassroots organization defending the interests of Yemen’s large Zaydi Shia Muslim community, and quickly entered into armed conflict with longtime autocratic president Ali Abdullah Saleh. After widespread popular protests forced Saleh to resign in 2012, Yemen descended into prolonged political and security chaos, allowing the Houthis to expand from their northern stronghold and seize control of the capital Sana’a in 2014.
Alarmed by the prospect of an Iranian-aligned movement controlling its southern neighbor, Saudi Arabia launched a full-scale military intervention in March 2015, with the stated goal of restoring the internationally recognized government of Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, Saleh’s former deputy, to full power. After years of grinding warfare that killed hundreds of thousands of people and created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, the conflict settled into a military stalemate by the late 2010s. Though multiple attempts to negotiate a permanent peace deal failed, all warring parties agreed to a ceasefire in April 2022. While the formal truce expired in October that same year, both sides largely avoided large-scale offensive operations, keeping violence at historically low levels for four years.
Hopes for a lasting negotiated settlement rose significantly in March 2023, when China brokered a historic rapprochement that restored diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which had been severed in 2016. But Houthi leaders quickly rejected any suggestion that the Iran-Saudi normalization would lead to a peace deal between the group and Riyadh, asserting their independence from Tehran and dashing initial optimism.
Prospects for peace eroded further after the outbreak of the 2023 Israel-Gaza war. Shortly after Hamas’ deadly cross-border attack on southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli military campaign in Gaza, Houthi forces launched missiles and drones targeting Israeli shipping in the Red Sea. The U.S. Navy intercepted Houthi projectiles headed for Israeli territory, marking the first direct American military intervention in the conflict on Israel’s behalf. Tensions escalated again in January 2024, when the Houthis carried out a large-scale coordinated attack on multiple U.S. Navy vessels operating in the Red Sea, prompting retaliatory airstrikes against Houthi targets by the U.S. and United Kingdom. A new U.S.-brokered ceasefire mediated by Oman took hold in May 2025, bringing another period of relative de-escalation.
That fragile peace finally collapsed in July 2026. On July 13, Saudi forces carried out an airstrike on Sana’a International Airport, blocking a plane carrying a Houthi delegation from landing to attend the funeral of Iran’s late supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Riyadh and the Yemeni government justified the attack by claiming the flight violated Yemeni sovereignty. In response, the Houthis launched missile strikes against civilian and military airports in southern Saudi Arabia, declared a full maritime embargo on all Saudi commercial and military vessels, and formally announced an end to the “de-escalation phase” of the conflict via official Telegram channels.
While global attention has focused on the threat Houthi control of the western coast poses to global energy supplies, the recent offensive carries profound implications for Yemen’s own internal dynamics. The territorial gains represent a major, strategic setback for the Saudi-backed Yemeni coalition, a fragmented alliance far more diverse than commonly understood: it includes forces led by Tareq Saleh, nephew of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, southern separatist groups pushing for regional autonomy, and a loose coalition of tribal and local armed factions.
For the Houthis, the new territorial gains also create significant new challenges. The group now must administer a much larger swathe of territory and population, while facing near-certain attempts by Saudi Arabia and pro-government forces to retake the newly captured areas. This mirrors an earlier phase of the conflict: in 2015, the Houthis seized large southern territories including Aden, Abyan and Lahj, but were quickly pushed back by pro-government forces and forced to relinquish control of the areas within months.
In recent weeks, reports have emerged indicating that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has requested direct U.S. airstrikes against Houthi positions to reverse the recent rebel gains. Washington has reportedly declined the request so far, but analysts widely agree that this is unlikely to be the final chapter in a conflict that has stretched for more than a decade, with no end in sight to the confrontation between Riyadh and the Houthi movement in Yemen.
This analysis is based on reporting and commentary by Vincent Durac, Associate Professor in the School of Politics & International Relations at University College Dublin, originally republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.