For Kenyans, milky spiced chai is far more than just a popular drink: it is a cultural staple woven into every part of daily life, from morning breakfast tables to business meetings and social gatherings. Millions of people reach for multiple cups of this warm, creamy brew every day. Today, however, that beloved tradition is under threat as a nationwide milk shortage has left supermarket dairy shelves nearly empty, forced retailers to ration purchases and hike prices, and put unprecedented strain on small food businesses that rely on steady milk supplies.
The national government has pointed to prolonged drought as the primary driver of the recent supply collapse, noting that parched conditions have drastically shrunk available pasture for dairy cattle and crippled overall production. Even the country’s dairy industry regulator has acknowledged the severity of the crisis, confirming widespread “supply constraints” and critically low stock levels that are unusual for this East African nation, which is one of the continent’s top milk producers.
The shortage is already hitting small business owners hard. Muthoni Macharia, who runs a casual restaurant in the capital city of Nairobi, normally purchases more than 70 packets of fresh milk each week to meet customer demand for chai. For the past week, she has spent her days scrambling to track down scarce supplies, losing business when she cannot meet her customers’ expectations. “If they come in groups, and there’s no milk tea, you see that’s a loss for me,” Macharia explained, adding that the shortage is most disruptive during the busy morning rush hour. While a handful of customers accept black tea as a substitute, most refuse, leaving her with lost sales and unhappy regulars.
Kenya boasts a long-standing, robust commercial dairy sector, and industry data ranks Kenyans among the highest per capita consumers of milk in Africa, with pasteurized fresh milk dominating urban markets and raw and fermented milk more common in rural areas. That makes the current shortage all the more shocking for consumers, and it has sparked widespread public frustration — even giving rise to unsubstantiated conspiracy theories that supermarkets are deliberately hoarding supplies to drive up profits.
Official data from the Kenya Dairy Board (KDB), the government regulator that oversees the dairy sector, confirms a steady downward trend in supply: formal milk deliveries to processors dropped 3.7% between June and July, falling from 84.4 million litres to 81.3 million litres, and preliminary data shows an even steeper decline in August. The Consumer Federation of Kenya (Cofek), the country’s leading consumer advocacy group, says the supply contraction has been ongoing since the start of 2025, caused by two interconnected factors: delayed seasonal rains that have cut grazing land, and a 45% spike in the cost of commercial animal feed.
Fresh milk prices have already jumped from 70 to 80 Kenyan shillings ($0.54 to $0.62) per litre, and Cofek argues that the current crisis was both predictable and largely avoidable. The organization blames state dairy processor New KCC and KDB for failing to properly process and store last year’s milk surplus into powdered milk, a buffer that processors typically convert back to liquid milk to offset low fresh milk supplies during dry seasons. “Had these buffers been in place, today’s supply shock would have been substantially cushioned,” Cofek said in a statement. The group has called on the government to implement an emergency recovery plan, including feed subsidies for smallholder dairy farmers, tax waivers on animal feed inputs, and aggressive price monitoring to crack down on opportunistic price gouging and unnecessary rationing.
In response to public outcry, KDB managing director William Maritim has framed the shortage as a “temporary supply constraint”, stressing that milk remains available to consumers overall. He did acknowledge that short-shelf-life fresh pasteurized milk has been far more impacted than longer-lasting UHT milk, which is less popular with most Kenyan consumers.
Shoppers in Nairobi who spoke to the BBC expressed growing anxiety about rising costs and unreliable supplies. Bernard Abok, an office worker who shops for groceries after work, said unpredictable stock and constant price hikes have become a constant frustration. “Sometimes when I go to the supermarket I find there is none. When I do find some, the price has gone up. Today it is this price, tomorrow it has gone up again,” he said. Patricia Gathoni, a mother, said she has already been forced to stretch scarce milk by adding water for her children, and warned she will have to completely rethink her family’s diet if prices continue to climb.
Earlier this week, senior agriculture ministry officials held emergency talks with Kenya’s dairy processors association to address the crisis. The government has committed to immediate interventions to support farmers, stabilize supply and protect consumers from unfair price hikes. Jonathan Mueke, the ministry’s top livestock development official, said the immediate priority is getting affordable feed to struggling dairy farmers, including allowing duty-free imports of yellow maize for animal feed.
Looking beyond the immediate crisis, the government is also developing long-term policy solutions to address Kenya’s recurring cycle of dairy gluts and shortages. During periods of oversupply, excess milk often goes to waste because farmers lack adequate storage and processing capacity, leaving them forced to sell perishable milk for far below market value. To fix this structural gap, Mueke said the government is considering creating a dedicated stabilization fund to support milk preservation and storage during surplus periods, to be drawn on during dry seasons when supplies fall short. The administration is also planning to temporarily import milk from neighboring countries to quickly ease the current shortage, a move that could bring much-needed relief to Kenya’s legion of chai lovers who have been forced to go without their favorite drink.