As Israel prepares for its 27 October parliamentary election, a newly released public opinion survey from broadcaster Channel 13 has delivered a potentially game-changing projection: a coalition of opposition parties united by the goal of ousting long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would win the slimmest possible governing majority, securing 61 out of the 120 seats in the Knesset. This marks the first major poll released in over a month that shows the anti-Netanyahu bloc capable of forming a majority government without relying on support from Palestinian-majority political parties.
Breaking down the projected seat shares, the poll forecasts that former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party will capture 21 seats, falling just one seat short of Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party, which is projected to take 22 seats. Following the two leading blocs are former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Together alliance at 15 seats, Yair Golan’s Democrats at 11 seats, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu at 10 seats. The final four seats required to push the opposition bloc across the 61-seat threshold would go to a new alliance led by Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper.
By contrast, the current coalition of far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties aligned with Netanyahu falls well short of a majority in the projection. United Torah Judaism is forecast to win 8 seats, while Shas and Itamar Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power take 7 seats apiece, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party is projected to win 6 seats. For Palestinian-majority parties, the poll projects Hadash-Ta’al will win 5 seats and Ra’am will take 4, while the Balad party and former Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White both fail to cross the minimum electoral threshold required to gain parliamentary representation. Notably, Channel 13 has not released public details of the poll’s sample size or margin of error, leaving its methodological transparency unconfirmed.
While Eisenkot has positioned himself as a leading figure in the movement to oust Netanyahu, his past policy stances suggest little substantive shift in Israeli policy toward the Gaza Strip if he enters government. As a member of Netanyahu’s wartime war cabinet in 2024 during the ongoing conflict in Gaza, Eisenkot privately discussed plans to restrict humanitarian access that would exacerbate widespread starvation among Palestinian civilians, a policy that Netanyahu ultimately implemented to push Gaza into a state of famine.
The release of the poll comes amid growing controversy over efforts by Netanyahu’s allies to restrict ballot access ahead of the vote, moves widely interpreted as an attempt to suppress turnout among voters likely to oppose the prime minister. Israeli newspaper Haaretz recently reported that senior officials in Transportation Minister Miri Regev’s office held discussions about imposing strict restrictions on incoming international flights immediately before election day, including limits on charter travel. Officials involved in those talks acknowledged the policy was motivated by fears that tens of thousands of Israeli citizens living overseas would return home to cast votes against Netanyahu.
In a separate restrictive move, a Knesset committee has advanced legislation that would eliminate dedicated polling stations at retirement and assisted-living facilities across the country. The change is projected to impact approximately 37,000 eligible voters, a population demographic that overwhelmingly opposes Netanyahu, and that number roughly equals the total number of votes required to secure one full Knesset seat.
While consecutive recent polls have consistently shown Netanyahu’s incumbent coalition at risk of defeat, Israel’s deeply fragmented political landscape still creates significant uncertainty for the opposition’s path to power. Even if the anti-Netanyahu bloc secures a narrow majority, negotiating a stable governing agreement across its multiple competing factions could prove a major challenge.