BANGKOK – On Monday, the Chinese Navy carried out a test launch of a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine, a demonstration that defense analysts say highlights significant advancements in Beijing’s sea-based nuclear deterrence capabilities. The test, the second such launch Chinese forces have conducted into international waters in recent years, has drawn sharp pushback from the United States and multiple Indo-Pacific nations, fueling growing concerns over rising regional militarization.
Following the launch, China’s official Xinhua News Agency confirmed the test had been conducted in the Pacific Ocean, framing it as a routine annual exercise that complied with all international legal norms and standard testing practices, and emphasized the launch was not targeted at any specific nation or entity. The report did not disclose the specific model of the missile tested, and confirmed the missile carried an inert dummy warhead rather than an active nuclear device. While open ocean ballistic missile tests are uncommon, the United States has previously conducted similar tests of its own submarine-launched weapons systems. On Tuesday, Xinhua released an official photograph of the launch but offered no additional technical details. Defense experts have narrowed the likely candidate down to two models: the JL-2 or longer-range JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, though most agree the available imagery is not sufficiently clear to make a definitive identification. China’s state-run tabloid the Global Times has publicly assessed the test was “most likely” a JL-3, a system with an estimated range of more than 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles), far longer than the shorter-range JL-2.
The test has already triggered widespread diplomatic condemnation across the Indo-Pacific. New Zealand officials have argued the launch took place within waters covered by the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, established under the 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga, which bans all nuclear weapons activities across the region. China ratified the treaty’s protocols in 1987, committing not to conduct nuclear tests within the zone or threaten signatories with nuclear force.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, speaking during a visit to Honiara, Solomon Islands on Tuesday, criticized China for providing insufficient advance notification of the test to regional governments. “There is no doubt that this is a provocative act by China which does destabilize the region,” Albanese told reporters. “This was a test of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile fired from a nuclear-powered submarine. That is of real concern because what we need is less nuclear weapons, certainly not more. And the fact that this test took place yesterday with very little notice is of real concern.”
New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters echoed that condemnation Monday, calling the test “unwelcome and concerning.” Solomon Islands opposition Prime Minister Matthew Wale also spoke out against the launch, noting “China is a good friend of Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does. This is not … good in our region. We don’t want to see any more countries — China, America, anybody — we don’t want anybody testing their ICBMs in the Pacific Islands region. Be our friend, but don’t threaten us.”
In response to mounting criticism, Beijing has called on foreign nations to avoid “overinterpretation” of the exercise. But analysts argue regional concerns hold legitimate grounding, rooted in longstanding concerns over a lack of transparency around China’s military modernization. “China’s military modernization and buildup have occurred without concurrent increases in openness and transparency, resulting in uncertainty about China’s intentions,” explained Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
The test comes as Beijing has prioritized comprehensive modernization of the People’s Liberation Army under President Xi Jinping. China already boasts the world’s largest standing army and the largest navy by number of vessels, and while its total nuclear arsenal remains smaller than those of the United States and Russia, it has rapidly expanded its stockpile of nuclear warheads and advanced new long-range missile systems and drone technology in recent years.
China’s officially published 2024 defense budget comes in at roughly $270 billion, representing a roughly 7% annual growth rate over the past four years and sitting just below 2% of the country’s gross domestic product. However, independent defense analysts estimate actual military spending is significantly higher: the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute puts China’s 2024 total defense expenditure at $313.7 billion. Much of the international security community’s focus on China’s military activity centers on tensions over Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its sovereign territory and has refused to rule out using military force to annex. Chinese military forces regularly conduct large-scale air and naval exercises in waters and airspace surrounding the island.
As China expands its military footprint and capabilities, regional powers have responded with their own defense buildup and increased security cooperation with the United States. Japan, for example, has abandoned its decades-long defense spending cap of 1% of GDP, moving to double its budget to 2% of GDP by 2027. The Philippines has also agreed to grant the United States expanded access to four additional military bases on its territory, increasing American military presence in the South China Sea region. Emma Chanlett-Avery, director of Political-Security Affairs at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted the latest missile test further complicates already fraught relations between Beijing and Tokyo. “The Chinese launch exacerbates already deeply strained relations between Beijing and Tokyo. Since (Prime Minister Sanae) Takaichi’s comments last year suggesting that Japan would engage in a conflict over Taiwan, China has tightened export controls on Japan and accused it of embracing a ‘new time of militarism,’” Chanlett-Avery said.