When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched the US-backed Israeli military campaign against Iran in late February, the Israeli government laid out two unambiguous, ambitious goals: dismantle Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile development programs and bring about the collapse of the ruling Iranian government. Months later, after Washington and Tehran reached a preliminary agreement and ongoing negotiations continue in Switzerland, a newly released public opinion survey has found that an overwhelming 92 percent of Israeli citizens are convinced that Iran emerged as the winner of the conflict.
Conducted jointly by the Agam Institute and Hebrew University of Jerusalem between June 17 and June 20, the poll surveyed 3,644 Israeli adults aged 17 and older, using a demographically weighted sample designed to accurately reflect the country’s overall population. Pollsters noted the survey carries a maximum margin of error of 2.2 percentage points at a 99 percent confidence level, lending significant statistical weight to its findings.
The results reveal deep public dissatisfaction with the war and its negotiated outcome: 83 percent of respondents agree the campaign has eroded Israel’s long-term national security, while 86 percent hold an entirely negative view of the final deal. This widespread public sentiment aligns closely with the perspective of Israel’s top political and military leadership, many of whom frame the end of the Iran war as a pivotal shift that will diminish Israel’s strategic influence across the Middle East.
Netanyahu has repeatedly claimed the campaign delivered significant strategic gains and eliminated a major existential threat to Israel, but three-quarters of Israelis – 72.5 percent – do not accept this assertion. The widespread skepticism has fueled growing political uncertainty around the prime minister’s hold on power. Overall, nearly 88 percent of respondents say Israel failed to achieve either of its core original war goals, or only met a small fraction of them. More than half – 56 percent – rate Netanyahu’s leadership and management of the Iran conflict as poor or an outright failure.
Notably, the public’s negative assessment of the Iran war outcome has not translated to broad support for an Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon, a longstanding sticking point in the US-Iran negotiations. Iran has consistently maintained that no permanent ceasefire can hold as long as Israeli forces carry out airstrikes across Lebanon and maintain a forward military presence several kilometers inside southern Lebanese territory.
The poll found that 48 percent of Israelis back the ongoing Israeli military campaign in Lebanon, which the Israeli government frames as a targeted operation against Hezbollah, the Iran-aligned Lebanese political and military organization. Even among respondents who acknowledge the campaign could spark a direct clash with US President Donald Trump, majority support for the operation holds steady among this group.
This independent reporting is part of Middle East Eye’s ongoing coverage of conflict and politics across the Middle East and North Africa region.