The United States commenced enforcement of a provisional 10% universal import tariff on Tuesday, creating significant uncertainty in global trade circles as the Trump administration simultaneously works toward implementing a more substantial 15% levy. This development follows President Donald Trump’s recent Supreme Court defeat regarding previous tariff mechanisms.
President Trump initially executed an executive order on Friday mandating a 10% tariff with a 150-day duration, designed to replace comprehensive duties previously invalidated by the Supreme Court. However, in a surprising reversal on Saturday, the president declared his intention to elevate the rate to 15%. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency subsequently notified shipping entities Monday evening that collections would commence at the lower 10% rate, citing the absence of updated formal presidential documentation.
A White House official confirmed to Reuters that Trump maintains unwavering commitment to implementing the 15% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, though no specific timeline was provided for this anticipated increase. The official emphasized that the president’s determination remains unchanged despite the current implementation at the reduced rate.
The policy shift has generated considerable confusion within international trade markets, with no official explanation provided for the discrepancy between announced intentions and implemented rates. Financial analysts from Deutsche Bank suggested the situation might clarify following Trump’s scheduled State of the Union address, while maintaining that effective tariff rates would likely decrease overall compared to pre-Supreme Court ruling levels.
Market reactions reflected this uncertainty, with global stocks opening lower Tuesday despite the less punitive than expected tariff rate. U.S. markets demonstrated resilience however, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.65%, the S&P 500 Index advancing 0.5%, and the technology-focused Nasdaq increasing 0.8% by midday trading.
The new tariff structure presents particular complications for the European Union, which previously negotiated a trade agreement predicated on a 15% base tariff rate. European Commission Trade Minister Maros Sefcovic acknowledged a “transitional period” regarding the temporary tariff but received assurances from U.S. trade officials that Washington would honor existing agreements.
Legal experts note that Section 122 authorization permits presidential imposition of duties for up to 150 days to address “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficits. Trump’s order cited a $1.2 trillion annual goods trade deficit, a current account deficit representing 4% of GDP, and reversal of the U.S. primary income surplus as justification. However, numerous economists and trade attorneys contest the characterization of an imminent balance-of-payments crisis, suggesting the new tariffs remain vulnerable to legal challenges.
Concurrently, the Trump administration issued warnings to international partners against retreating from previously negotiated trade arrangements, threatening significantly higher duties under alternative statutory authorities should countries disengage from existing agreements. Japan, the European Union, Britain, and Taiwan all indicated preferences to maintain their current trade deals with the United States.
ING’s Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski observed that despite the 150-day limitation on current measures, trade uncertainty will likely persist given the potential for consecutive extensions. Meanwhile, China’s commerce ministry expressed willingness to conduct additional trade discussions with the United States while simultaneously urging Washington to abandon its “unilateral tariffs.”