A groundbreaking epidemiological study published in The Lancet Global Health journal has revealed a stark discrepancy in Gaza conflict mortality data, estimating that violent deaths during the first 16 months of hostilities significantly exceeded official reports. The comprehensive survey, conducted by an international team of demographers, economists, and epidemiological experts, calculated approximately 75,200 violent fatalities occurred between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025—representing a 35 percent increase over the Palestinian health ministry’s documented count of 49,090 during the same period.
The Gaza Mortality Survey employed rigorous methodological approaches, interviewing 2,000 representative households encompassing 9,729 individuals across Gaza. Experienced Palestinian pollsters collected detailed familial mortality data, with findings indicating that 3.4 percent of Gaza’s population suffered violent deaths during the survey period. The research validated that demographic distributions reported by health officials—showing 42,200 women, children, and elderly victims comprising 56 percent of total fatalities—were remarkably accurate.
Professor Michael Spagat, an economics expert at Royal Holloway and study co-author, highlighted additional conflict-related mortality, estimating approximately 8,200 further deaths attributable to indirect effects including malnutrition and untreated diseases. The research team emphasized that health ministry figures provided a conservative baseline rather than an overcount, with multiple independent methodologies confirming the reliability of administrative casualty recording systems despite extreme operational conditions.
The findings gain further credibility through correlation with independent analyses, including a November estimate from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research that calculated 78,318 fatalities through December 2024. While Israeli authorities have historically questioned Palestinian health ministry data, a military official recently acknowledged approximately 70,000 Gaza deaths, aligning more closely with the new epidemiological findings than previous official estimates.