The United Arab Emirates may witness another increase in petrol prices for February 2026 following January’s upward adjustment, as global oil markets experience renewed volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Market analysts point to rising Brent crude prices, which averaged $63.47 per barrel this month compared to $61.51 in December 2025, creating pressure on local fuel pricing mechanisms.
Geopolitical risk factors have emerged as significant price drivers, with renewed U.S. focus on Iran and Venezuela sparking supply disruption fears. The deployment of American naval assets to the Middle East has particularly raised concerns about potential escalation, contributing to what market experts describe as a ‘geopolitical risk premium’ in current oil pricing. This sentiment has prompted hedge funds to increase bullish crude positions to their highest level since August.
Despite these upward pressures, Fitch Ratings maintains a cautious outlook, noting that any potential supply disruptions would likely be absorbed by an oversupplied global market. The ratings agency emphasized that OPEC’s future strategic stance on volume versus value will prove crucial in shaping oil market dynamics in the coming months.
Domestically, the growing vehicle population in the UAE continues to drive substantial demand for petroleum products. Adnoc Distribution, the nation’s largest fuel retailer, reported record nine-month fuel volumes totaling 11.7 billion liters while expanding its network with 85 new service stations during January-September 2026.
The UAE’s fuel pricing committee considers both international benchmark trends and local market conditions when determining monthly prices. For January, Super 98, Special 95, and E-Plus were priced at Dh2.53, Dh2.42, and Dh2.34 per liter respectively, representing a slight decrease from December 2025 rates. Market watchers now await the February announcement amid current market conditions that suggest possible increases.