Slowdown in Dubai? Property data from 2025 proves analysts wrong

Dubai’s property market has delivered a stunning rebuttal to pessimistic forecasts, achieving unprecedented growth throughout 2025 that has fundamentally reshaped market expectations. According to official data released by the Dubai Land Department, the emirate recorded over 270,000 real estate transactions valued at Dh917 billion, representing a remarkable 20 percent year-on-year increase in volume.

This exceptional performance directly contradicts projections made by global ratings agency Fitch in 2024, which had anticipated price corrections of up to 15 percent across 2025 due to anticipated supply increases. Instead, the market demonstrated robust growth across all key metrics, with average prices increasing by approximately 7 percent according to DLD figures, while internal data from major agencies showed even stronger appreciation trends.

Industry leaders emphasize that Dubai’s real estate expansion is fundamentally driven rather than speculative. Lewis Allsopp, Chairman of Allsopp & Allsopp, stated: “All key metrics—transaction volume, pricing, and average prices—show consistent growth. The narrative of a slowdown simply doesn’t align with the actual data.”

The market’s strength stems from multiple structural factors including sustained population growth, continued inflow of high-net-worth individuals, long-term residency initiatives, and comprehensive infrastructure development. Real estate investments during 2025 exceeded Dh680 billion across 258,600 deals, representing a 29 percent value increase and 20 percent growth in transaction numbers. The investor base expanded significantly to approximately 193,100 participants, including 129,600 new entrants.

Humaira Vaqqas, Senior Consultant at Range International Properties, noted: “The record transaction volumes demonstrate sustained end-user demand alongside institutional and international investor confidence. The market has evolved into a more transparent and regulated ecosystem, maintaining momentum while avoiding extreme volatility.”

Looking toward 2026, industry executives express even greater optimism based on sustained demand drivers, affordable project launches, and Dubai’s positioning as a global real estate hub. The market’s performance aligns with the objectives of the Dubai Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033, which aims to increase transaction volume by 70 percent to reach Dh1 trillion.