The World Gold Council (WGC) projects gold prices to remain rangebound throughout 2026, following an extraordinary performance in 2025 that saw the precious metal achieve 53 record highs and finish with a remarkable 67% annual gain in US dollar terms. According to the global body’s comprehensive analysis, gold enters the new year priced at approximately $4,368 per ounce, reflecting market consensus expectations of steady global growth, modest Federal Reserve rate reductions, and a marginally stronger US dollar.
The Council outlines four distinct scenarios for gold’s trajectory in 2026. The base case anticipates rangebound trading amid stable economic conditions. However, the analysis reveals a pronounced upside bias should economic conditions deteriorate. A ‘shallow slip’ scenario involving softer growth and deeper policy easing could propel prices 5-15% higher, while a ‘doom loop’ of synchronized global downturn coupled with elevated geopolitical risks might trigger a substantial 15-30% surge. Conversely, stronger-than-expected US growth with higher yields and dollar strength could pressure gold downward by 5-20%.
December 2025 witnessed historic gains across precious metals, though gold’s ascent appeared more measured compared to the volatile movements in silver and platinum. The WGC attributes gold’s strong performance to robust options activity, emerging market currency tailwinds, and falling yields, with geopolitical concerns remaining a persistent driver throughout the previous year.
Critical wildcards that could significantly influence gold’s direction include central bank purchasing patterns—particularly from emerging markets where gold reserves remain below advanced-economy shares—and potential increases in recycling flows. Additionally, the pending Supreme Court decision regarding tariff authorities under IEEPA represents another swing factor that could either entrench policy risk premiums or refocus attention on fiscal deficits.
Despite the rangebound base case, the Council emphasizes that gold’s fundamental supports—policy uncertainty, persistent geopolitical risks, and active investment demand—remain firmly intact. With tail risks multiplying and real rates cyclically elevated, the metal’s portfolio role as a diversifier and hedge against downside risk continues to offer compelling value for investors navigating an increasingly uncertain global landscape.