Nigeria confronts a severe security emergency as conflicting narratives emerge regarding perpetrators behind a recent wave of mass abductions. While the government attributes these kidnappings to jihadist organizations Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), independent analysts present contradictory evidence pointing to local criminal networks.
The crisis intensified through three major incidents within one week: On November 17, 25 students and a teacher were abducted from Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in Kebbi state; November 18 witnessed 38 worshippers kidnapped from Christ Apostolic Church in Kwara state; and November 21 saw the most devastating attack with approximately 250 children and 12 staff members taken from St. Mary’s Catholic School in Niger state. While most victims from the first two incidents have been released, the majority from the Niger state kidnapping remain captive.
Presidential spokesman Sunday Dare asserted to BBC that ‘abundant data nationally and internationally reveals clearly that ISWAP are all over the place,’ maintaining that both ISWAP and remnants of Boko Haram are responsible. However, the government has not produced concrete evidence supporting these claims.
Contrary to official statements, security analysts and the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) identify Fulani militia groups—locally termed ‘bandits’—as the actual perpetrators. These decentralized criminal networks operate primarily in northwestern Nigeria, distinct from the jihadist groups concentrated in the northeast. According to ACLED’s analysis, the school abduction in Niger state appears partially motivated by political objectives against the government, while the church attack in Kwara state aligns with Fulani expansionist agendas and displacement campaigns for illegal mining operations.
The kidnapping epidemic represents a lucrative criminal enterprise in Nigeria, where ransom payments remain illegal but widely suspected to occur. Presidential spokesman Dare ambiguously referenced ‘kinetic, non-kinetic, negotiations, etc.’ as successful processes for securing releases, avoiding direct confirmation of ransom payments.
This security crisis has attracted international attention, particularly after former US President Donald Trump threatened military intervention if Christian targeting continues. However, Nigerian officials and experts emphasize that victims span all religious affiliations, contradicting narratives of sectarian targeting.
The situation echoes Nigeria’s tragic history with mass abductions, notably the infamous Chibok schoolgirls incident where many children remained captive for years or died in captivity. Current President Bola Tinubu has promised to rescue remaining abductees but provided no timeline for resolution.