The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is poised to experience a sustained consumer boom, driven by its youthful, expanding, and increasingly affluent population. This demographic advantage positions the region to outperform many advanced economies in consumer spending over the coming decades. According to Oxford Economics, robust demographics, rising labor participation, and sustained migration flows are fueling household income and demand across all sectors. Azad Zangana, Head of GCC Macroeconomic Analysis at Oxford Economics, highlights that the region’s favorable age profile, with an average age of 30.7 years in 2024, provides a significant head start into prime earning and spending years. By contrast, the United States and China face aging populations, with average ages of 38.3 and 39.6 years, respectively. Structural enablers such as high inward migration, rising female labor participation, and improved educational attainment further bolster the GCC’s consumer spending trajectory. The World Bank forecasts regional growth at 3.2% in 2025, rising to 4.5% in 2026, driven by private consumption and investment. The GCC retail market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% through 2028, exceeding $390 billion. Saudi Arabia and the UAE dominate retail sales, accounting for three-quarters of the market. Food retail alone was valued at $127.2 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $162 billion by 2028. The region’s low age-dependency ratio (32.1 in 2024, projected to rise only to 35.1 by 2050) contrasts sharply with high-income countries, where ratios often exceed 50 or 60. This demographic edge reduces pension and healthcare burdens, freeing up disposable income for goods, services, and lifestyle upgrades. Migrant workers contribute significantly to aggregate demand, while nationals and long-term expatriates drive spending on travel, dining, e-commerce, and luxury goods. Rising female workforce participation further amplifies the consumption engine. Despite global economic challenges, the GCC’s luxury and personal-care markets remain resilient, supported by rising wealth and population growth. GDP per capita in the region stood at $70,300 in 2023, with a population CAGR of 1.5% expected to reach over 62.5 million by 2028. For investors and brands, the GCC represents a growth-oriented market with healthy household balance sheets and strong consumer confidence. In the UAE, 60% of residents expect financial improvement, compared to 37% globally, while 42% plan to increase spending, versus 22% globally. Policymakers and analysts recognize that the GCC’s future lies not only in hydrocarbons but also in human capital and consumption growth. The region’s unique combination of favorable demographics, rising incomes, and structural retail expansion creates a compelling investment case. As advanced economies grapple with aging populations and stagnant growth, the GCC is set to maintain its consumer sector’s outperformance, driven by a youthful, dynamic population with the capacity to consume and thrive.
