A Trump administration playbook for the Pacific

As Secretary of State, Marco Rubio has outlined a robust framework for US foreign policy, emphasizing initiatives that strengthen America, secure its future, and enhance its prosperity. In the Pacific Islands, the US faces a strategic challenge: aligning the Trump administration’s priorities with the region’s unique circumstances and aspirations. By examining four key areas of statecraft—diplomatic, intelligence, military, and economic—a strategic playbook emerges that addresses both US interests and regional needs. The Trump administration’s foreign policy, often seen as unpredictable, reveals clear patterns: China is viewed as the primary global threat, hard power is prioritized over soft power, cost-cutting is emphasized, and allies are expected to share more of the burden. Diplomatically, the administration has focused on recalibrating trade relationships to address deficits and create favorable environments for American businesses. This shift has elevated the role of economic and financial agencies like the Department of Commerce. However, the US has struggled to establish a strong diplomatic presence in the Pacific, a region where personal relationships are crucial. Sending Commerce Department officials to key Pacific nations could enhance trade and reinforce US influence. Additionally, expediting the nomination and confirmation of US ambassadors to the Pacific Islands is essential. For instance, the US Embassy in Honiara reopened in January 2023, but the ambassador position remains vacant, leaving a gap that China has readily filled. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) remains a cornerstone of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, fostering partnerships with Australia, India, and Japan to expand Pacific engagement and meet burden-sharing goals. In 2023, the Quad announced initiatives addressing climate change, maritime security, and economic development. Intelligence-sharing is also critical, particularly with the Freely Associated States (FAS)—Marshall Islands, Palau, and Micronesia—to counter China’s influence. Enhanced US support for local law enforcement and disaster preparedness can strengthen regional resilience. Maritime security is another priority, with illegal fishing and transnational crimes posing significant threats. The US has shiprider agreements with 12 Pacific Island countries, but limited capacity hinders their effectiveness. Cost-effective solutions, such as reallocating assets or prepositioning cutters, could improve outcomes. Militarily, the US maintains extensive defense rights in the FAS through the Compacts of Free Association. Recent security arrangements with Papua New Guinea and Fiji counter China’s presence while supporting regional development and disaster relief. Australia and New Zealand are also increasing their roles in the Pacific, necessitating close coordination to avoid overlap. Economically, the US faces challenges due to the freeze on foreign aid and the dismantling of USAID, which has damaged its credibility and allowed China to expand its influence. Restarting disaster relief and unexploded ordnance programs in the FAS and Papua New Guinea is a positive step, but a more mutually beneficial economic engagement strategy is needed. By prioritizing areas like economic development, environmental resilience, and small-scale infrastructure, the US can deepen relationships with Pacific Island Countries (PICs) while advancing its strategic interests. Leveraging diplomatic channels, enhancing intelligence sharing, and fostering economic partnerships will be crucial in countering Chinese expansion and ensuring a prosperous future for both the US and the Pacific Islands.