The landscape of the 2025 French Open men’s singles draw has been turned upside down following stunning early exits of the tournament’s top title contenders, leaving Germany’s Alexander Zverev as the undisputed favorite to claim his first career Grand Slam trophy when the semi-finals kick off on Friday. Even as the 29-year-old second seed brushes off questions about favorite status, the weight of expectation sits firmly on his shoulders heading into his clash against 26th seed Jakub Mensik of the Czech Republic. The winner of that match will go on to face either Italy’s Flavio Cobolli or Matteo Arnaldi in Sunday’s Roland Garros final, completing an unexpected final four bracket.
After world No. 1 Jannik Sinner and 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic both departed the tournament far earlier than predicted, Zverev has emerged as the clear pick to end his run as one of tennis’s most high-profile nearly-men. The 2020 Olympic gold medalist has been in imperious form through the first two weeks of the clay-court major, dropping just one set across five matches to secure his place in the final four. His most recent victory, a straight-sets quarter-final win over rising Spanish teenager Rafael Jodar, took less than two and a half hours and served as further proof of his sharpness entering the semi-finals.
Despite being the highest-ranked, most experienced and most decorated player remaining in the draw, Zverev says he is blocking out all noise about a potential first title and focusing solely on his upcoming opponent. “As I said before, I don’t particularly care about being the favourite,” Zverev told reporters after his quarter-final win. “I focus on next match, and I focus on the opponent as they cross the net, and that’s the only thing that I can control.”
Standing between Zverev and a fourth Grand Slam final is 20-year-old Mensik, who is into the final four of a major for the first time in his young career. The 196cm serving powerhouse has already notched a career-defining title, upsetting Djokovic to win the 2024 Miami Open, and has fought through a tough draw to reach this stage at Roland Garros. His straight-sets quarter-final victory over Brazilian breakout star Joao Fonseca cemented his status as one of the most exciting young prospects on the ATP Tour, and he is not intimidated by the challenge of facing the tournament favorite. The pair have met once before this season, with Zverev claiming a tight three-set win on the clay of Madrid. “The match with Sascha in Madrid, of course, it was a close one. It was best-of-three,” Mensik noted. “Right now it’s a different situation… I would say bigger match, best-of-five. I’m excited for the challenge.”
The second semi-final will make Grand Slam history, as it pits two Italian players against each other in the men’s draw for the first time ever. Pre-tournament predictions expected Italy’s top star Sinner to be in this position, but instead it is 10th seed Flavio Cobolli and unseeded Matteo Arnaldi who will contest an all-Italian semi-final for a spot in the final.
Cobolli, ranked 10th in the world, booked his first ever Grand Slam semi-final spot with a tight victory over Canada’s fourth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime on Court Philippe Chatrier, and described the moment as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. “I felt like this is the chance of my life,” Cobolli said after the win. His opponent Arnaldi advanced to the semi-finals without hitting a shot in his quarter-final, as compatriot Matteo Berrettini was forced to withdraw due to injury. Currently ranked 104th in the world, Arnaldi is enjoying his best ever Grand Slam performance after returning from a recent injury layoff, and has spent more time on court than any other semi-finalist this fortnight. Despite the heavy workload, he says he has plenty of energy left for the match. “I have been playing a lot, but at the same time, I’m happy to be on court and to spend time on court, because I missed playing,” Arnaldi said. “I for sure have some energy left for the next matches.”
The pair share a 1-1 head-to-head record, and their meeting on Friday will be a rematch of the 2024 French Open second round, where Cobolli claimed a four-set win. Cobolli says the historic semi-final is a win for Italian tennis regardless of who comes out on top. “For sure it will be another derby, but I think we have to be happy for Italian tennis,” Cobolli said. “Another Italian, apart from Sinner and Lorenzo (Musetti), are in the final this week. So we have to be happy, and we have to enjoy that match.”