Saudi Arabia confronts a pivotal challenge in Yemen as analysts assess the Gulf kingdom’s capacity to stabilize the war-torn nation through its newly formed government in Aden. The recent political developments mark a significant shift in Yemen’s power dynamics following the dissolution of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), the primary separatist group that previously controlled southern territories.
The formation of a 35-member cabinet, sworn in at the Yemeni embassy in Riyadh last month with Shaya Mohsen al-Zindani as prime minister, represents Saudi Arabia’s consolidated influence after the United Arab Emirates withdrew from Yemen. This departure left Riyadh as the predominant external actor managing Yemen’s complex political landscape.
To strengthen the government’s position, Saudi Arabia has implemented substantial support measures including multi-million dollar fuel purchases for power stations and assuming responsibility for security force salaries previously funded by Abu Dhabi. Riyadh has additionally taken over humanitarian project financing that the UAE abruptly abandoned during its withdrawal.
Despite these efforts, significant obstacles remain. Analysts note that while Saudi-backed forces have deployed widely throughout Aden, the STC maintains considerable influence through embedded security forces and persistent public support. Images of STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi and the group’s flags remain visible throughout the city, with thousands of fighters maintaining a low-profile presence.
The government’s most immediate challenge involves establishing genuine control over Aden’s security apparatus. Researchers emphasize that physical presence doesn’t equate to political control, noting that ministers effectively operate as ‘guests in a city where security forces still answer to their old loyalties.’
Complicating matters further, the administration faces organized protests without clear leadership to negotiate with. Recent demonstrations in Aden and other southern cities have turned violent, presenting the government with a ‘headless opposition’ that limits diplomatic options.
Beyond security concerns, the administration must address critical public service issues and salary restoration. While Saudi fuel shipments have temporarily reduced power cuts, maintaining supply during summer months presents an ongoing challenge. Public sector salaries have stagnated for nearly a decade, with university professors reporting income drops from $1,200 to approximately $200 monthly since the war began.
Regional rivalries additionally threaten stabilization efforts, with analysts warning that the UAE might seek to undermine stability through allied actors following its loss of influence. Any government withdrawal from Aden would represent a significant setback for both the Presidential Leadership Council and Saudi Arabia’s broader strategic objectives in Yemen.