New data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service has confirmed that July 2026 brought the hottest ocean temperatures ever recorded globally, a climate milestone amplified by the developing El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific that scientists warn will strengthen in the coming months.
Across ocean waters between 60 degrees north and 60 degrees south — excluding polar regions — the average sea surface temperature hit 20.96°C last month, breaking the previous all-time high of 20.89°C set just three years prior in 2023. Globally, July 2026 ranked as the joint second-warmest July ever documented, with average temperatures sitting 1.47°C above pre-industrial baselines. The record ocean warmth extended to European waters, with unprecedented highs measured along the Atlantic coast and western Mediterranean, triggering widespread severe marine heatwaves across the region.
El Niño, a naturally occurring Pacific weather pattern that warms surface waters, is interacting with human-caused global warming to amplify these temperature spikes, researchers explain. Oceans act as Earth’s critical climate buffer, absorbing more than 90% of excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions and producing half of the planet’s oxygen supply. But as waters warm, their capacity to absorb carbon dioxide drops, leaving more heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere and creating a dangerous feedback loop that accelerates climate change. Warmer oceans also disrupt marine ecosystems, forcing species to migrate in search of cooler habitats and upending entire ocean food chains.
The same warming trends that pushed ocean temperatures to new highs have triggered an unprecedented sequence of extreme weather across Western Europe. The region recorded its hottest combined June and July on record in 2026, with an average temperature of 21.62°C — 2.79°C above the long-term average. This marked the third consecutive month of exceptional heat for the area, with persistent high-pressure systems trapping heat over the continent and parched soils eliminating natural evaporative cooling effects. Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, noted that this extreme event is a clear illustration of how climate change is intensifying heat extremes, with heat and drought creating a self-reinforcing cycle that worsens conditions over time.
The prolonged hot, dry spell has stripped the region of moisture, leaving soil moisture levels across much of Western Europe far lower than those recorded during the severe 2022 European drought. Major waterways including the Seine, Rhine, and Danube have seen far lower-than-average flows, with some stretches hitting historic lows. These low water levels have put massive pressure on public water supplies, agricultural irrigation, fragile aquatic ecosystems, commercial river navigation, and hydropower generation across the continent.
Dry conditions have also created prime fuel for extreme wildfire activity, with large blazes raging across Western Europe through July 2026. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service director Laurence Rouil noted that this summer’s burned area, smoke output, and fire intensity have been exceptional, noting that climate change is expanding the conditions that spawn large, high-intensity wildfires in southern Europe while extending the wildfire season further north than ever before. Larger wildfires inject smoke higher into the atmosphere, allowing it to travel thousands of kilometers, meaning even countries with low historical wildfire risk face growing exposure to hazardous smoke pollution.
In the United Kingdom, the extreme dry conditions have pushed water systems to breaking point. The UK Met Office confirmed that England and Wales saw their driest July in 190 years of record-keeping, with large swathes of England and all of Wales already officially designated as being in drought. The Environment Agency has warned that additional areas of England could be added to drought declarations if dry conditions continue through August. The UK’s Met Office has emphasized that weather once classified as extreme is now becoming the “new normal”, with its latest climate assessment finding that the average hottest annual temperature in southern England is now 4.5°C warmer than it was between 1961 and 1990. “We are right now living in a time of historic and unprecedented change,” said Mike Kendon, a Met Office climate information scientist. “Evidence shows the climate of the 20th century has now gone.”
Scientists stress that the current extreme conditions are being driven by long-term anthropogenic warming, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, with El Niño acting as a temporary additional push that pushes global temperatures even higher. Today, the global average temperature is already roughly 1.4°C higher than pre-industrial levels at the end of the 19th century, matching the threshold scientists have long warned carries severe, irreversible risks to natural and human systems.