Despite dramatic military escalation culminating in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, energy market analysts project minimal impact on global oil prices. The January 3rd US offensive, while geopolitically significant, is occurring against a backdrop of severe pre-existing sanctions that have already crippled Venezuela’s oil export capabilities.
Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, notes that while Venezuela possesses the world’s largest oil reserves, its actual export capacity ranks outside the top twenty globally due to prolonged sanctions. “The market remains deeply oversupplied,” Hasn emphasized, pointing to structural factors that outweigh geopolitical risks.
This assessment is supported by International Energy Agency projections indicating a substantial supply surplus of 3.85 million barrels per day anticipated for 2026. This oversupply situation effectively cushions against potential disruptions from Venezuela, whose production has dwindled to between 700,000 and 1 million barrels daily.
Amena Bakr, Head of Middle East Energy and OPEC+ Insights at Kpler, concurred with this muted outlook, noting that “oil markets continue to underestimate geopolitical risk” despite the escalation.
The analysis extends beyond Venezuela, with experts identifying three potential supply shocks that could collectively impact markets: the Venezuela situation, escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions affecting Russian energy infrastructure, and renewed Middle East volatility involving Iran and Israel. The convergence of all three scenarios could create significant price pressure, though analysts consider this simultaneous occurrence unlikely.
For oil-dependent economies like the UAE, which aligns domestic fuel prices with global benchmarks, the continued market oversupply has already resulted in consumer benefits, with petrol rates reduced for January 2026 following subdued December pricing.