According to Washington-based Turkey expert Asli Aydintasbas, the United States government communicated to Turkey through official channels that military operations against Iran would conclude within a mere four-day timeframe. The Brookings Institution fellow revealed these details during a recent interview with Serbestiyet news outlet, characterizing the subsequently prolonged conflict as a form of betrayal toward NATO allies and regional partners.
The disclosure emerges amidst reports of Turkey’s extensive diplomatic efforts to prevent joint Israeli-American strikes against Iran since January. Turkish officials reportedly presented multiple proposals to both Washington and Tehran, including offers to host mediation talks in Istanbul. However, Iranian leadership reportedly declined these overtures, including a proposed trilateral teleconference involving Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and US President Donald Trump.
Following several rounds of negotiations in Oman focusing specifically on Iran’s nuclear program, Washington and Israel ultimately launched unprovoked strikes against Iran last month. Aydintasbas highlighted the divergent objectives between the two allies, noting that Israel primarily sought regime change or fragmentation of Iran while the Trump administration pursued a quick victory to leverage nuclear negotiations.
The expert criticized the administration’s approach, noting the conspicuous absence of Iran expertise in planning discussions. Instead, the strategy appeared driven by Israeli encouragement and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s urgings, resulting in what Aydintasbas characterized as a poorly conceived ‘hit-and-run’ operation that has devolved into an open-ended conflict.
Initial White House assumptions suggested that eliminating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would precipitate regime collapse. However, the emergence of Mojtaba Khamenei as successor—who lost family members in strikes—created a scenario more reminiscent of North Korea’s leadership than the Venezuela-style cooperation the administration anticipated.
Further complicating matters, reports indicated consideration of employing Iranian and Iraqi Kurdish forces to establish border control—a plan that met with significant backlash from both media outlets and allied nations. Turkey reportedly expressed strong objections through diplomatic channels, joined by concerns from Saudi Arabia regarding the dangers of instigating civil war in Iran.
Despite initial encouragement from President Trump toward Kurdish involvement, the administration subsequently reversed position, with the president publicly stating he did not want Kurdish forces entering Iran amid the already complex conflict.