A comprehensive security assessment has identified the United States as the predominant factor influencing overseas risk landscapes for Chinese interests throughout 2026. The China Overseas Security Risk Blue Book (2026), collaboratively produced by Renmin University’s National Security Institute and the China Overseas Security Research Institute, reveals that intensifying great-power competition, deteriorating global governance mechanisms, and persistent regional conflicts are generating unprecedented complexities for China’s international operations.
The report details how Washington’s strategic approach toward China has evolved into increasingly institutionalized and sophisticated forms of high-intensity competition. These geopolitical maneuvers are simultaneously eroding the foundations of the international order while creating destabilizing effects across multiple regions where China maintains substantial economic interests.
Recent financial data from China’s Ministry of Commerce underscores the scale of these exposures, with total outbound direct investment reaching $158.21 billion during the first eleven months of 2025. Chinese enterprises have established non-financial direct investments across 153 countries worldwide, accumulating $132.09 billion in committed capital.
The analysis specifically references the recent US military intervention in Venezuela, including the detention of President Nicolas Maduro and his spouse, as demonstrating the operationalization of what the report terms the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ – an evolved interpretation of the historic Monroe Doctrine emphasizing hemispheric control and resource acquisition. This doctrine has effectively obstructed regional cooperation initiatives involving China.
Now in its tenth annual edition, the Blue Book concludes that such interventions demonstrate America’s continued adherence to hegemonic power politics throughout Latin America, consequently generating volatile conditions for Chinese investment projects and cooperative ventures across the region.
Liu Qing, Vice-President and senior research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, notes that while China’s Belt and Road Initiative continues to expand the overseas interests and requirements of Chinese corporations, corresponding security capabilities have failed to maintain pace with this growth. This emerging discrepancy represents a critical vulnerability demanding urgent attention.
The assessment further identifies additional global risk factors including deepening US security collaborations with Japan and South Korea, Japan’s political rightward shift and resurgent militarism, ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts, and the protracted Ukraine crisis. Deficits in global governance architectures are simultaneously increasing the costs and complexities associated with protecting China’s overseas assets.
The Blue Book ultimately recommends enhanced monitoring of evolving geopolitical situations to mitigate risks, alongside strengthened technological reserves to address non-traditional security challenges. It further advocates for China’s constructive participation in global governance frameworks and the provision of high-quality international public goods.